KLAS / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST63%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

71%

69%

61%

22%

Consensus

63%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 56.9¢Risks 56.85u

ICONNO 43.1¢Risks 43.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +43.15u · ICON −43.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	5.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	68.5%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	36.0%	—	—	—	—	47.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	61.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	24.3%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	40.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	21.8%	—	—	—	—	34.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	65.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	23.3%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	14.9%	—	—	9.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	25.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	15.6%	—	—	20.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	8.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	4.2%	4.0%	—	—	12.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	3.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	40.9%	6.7%	4.2%	—	14.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	64.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	50.0%	60.1%	42.7%	—	23.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	52.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	23.4%	27.0%	45.4%	71.1%	—	32.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	36.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	10.4%	1.0%	38.2%	20.6%	—	28.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	24.3%	—	45.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	12.5%	53.3%	47.5%	67.0%	—	27.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	3.0%	35.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	16.7%	6.5%	41.3%	56.1%	—	21.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	19.6%	0.8%	33.4%	—	—	34.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	27.4%	3.0%	42.7%	51.8%	—	40.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	17.1%	32.6%	—	—	37.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	34.8%	32.1%	30.4%	57.7%	—	45.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	33.5%	13.5%	19.0%	—	—	44.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	20.4%	26.8%	81.0%	0.0%	43.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	35.5%	15.0%	34.5%	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	16.9%	41.3%	69.9%	—	47.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	28.6%	2.9%	38.9%	0.1%	—	47.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	34.1%	23.3%	46.5%	74.0%	0.0%	54.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	32.5%	44.0%	38.1%	78.4%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	25.6%	40.1%	40.1%	72.4%	37.7%	50.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	21.9%	43.6%	44.9%	76.2%	—	38.5%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	20.0%	40.7%	44.6%	80.9%	42.0%	28.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	15.6%	58.3%	33.8%	65.0%	—	18.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	20.2%	64.2%	41.4%	72.0%	29.3%	31.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	35.2%	61.9%	—	36.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	92%	85.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	71%	81.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	69%	81.4°F	3.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	61%	80.4°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	80.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
National Blend	45%	79.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	22%	76.7°F	3.6°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261020-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 18 · 04:15 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas high ≥ 80°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗