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KLAS / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST98%Oct 17 · 10:46 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
>99%
AIFS
>99%
WN2
99%
EPS
96%
ICON
94%
Consensus
98%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 97.0¢Risks 24.26u
VS
ICONNO 3.0¢Risks 0.74u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +0.74u · ICON −0.74u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 99.2% · 2026-10-17T04:42:41+00:00AIFS Single: 99.2% · 2026-10-17T05:28:30+00:00AIFS Single: 99.2% · 2026-10-17T06:13:41+00:00AIFS Single: 99.2% · 2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00AIFS Single: 99.6% · 2026-10-17T07:45:24+00:00AIFS Single: 99.6% · 2026-10-17T08:31:17+00:00AIFS Single: 99.6% · 2026-10-17T09:16:46+00:00AIFS Single: 99.6% · 2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00AIFS Single: 99.6% · 2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 96.1% · 2026-10-17T04:42:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 96.1% · 2026-10-17T05:28:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 96.1% · 2026-10-17T06:13:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 96.1% · 2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 96.1% · 2026-10-17T07:45:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 96.1% · 2026-10-17T08:31:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 96.1% · 2026-10-17T09:16:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 96.1% · 2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 96.1% · 2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.6% · 2026-10-17T04:42:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.7% · 2026-10-17T05:28:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.7% · 2026-10-17T06:13:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.7% · 2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.7% · 2026-10-17T07:45:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.7% · 2026-10-17T08:31:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.7% · 2026-10-17T09:16:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.7% · 2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.7% · 2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00IFS HRES: 98.4% · 2026-10-17T04:42:41+00:00IFS HRES: 98.4% · 2026-10-17T05:28:30+00:00IFS HRES: 98.4% · 2026-10-17T06:13:41+00:00IFS HRES: 98.4% · 2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00IFS HRES: 100.0% · 2026-10-17T07:45:24+00:00IFS HRES: 100.0% · 2026-10-17T08:31:17+00:00IFS HRES: 100.0% · 2026-10-17T09:16:46+00:00IFS HRES: 100.0% · 2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00IFS HRES: 100.0% · 2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00ICON: 88.7% · 2026-10-17T04:42:41+00:00ICON: 88.7% · 2026-10-17T05:28:30+00:00ICON: 88.7% · 2026-10-17T06:13:41+00:00ICON: 88.7% · 2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00ICON: 94.1% · 2026-10-17T07:45:24+00:00ICON: 94.1% · 2026-10-17T08:31:17+00:00ICON: 94.1% · 2026-10-17T09:16:46+00:00ICON: 94.1% · 2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00ICON: 94.1% · 2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:0010-17 04:4210-17 07:4510-17 10:46
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-17T04:42:41+00:0099.2%96.1%96.6%98.4%88.7%
2026-10-17T05:28:30+00:0099.2%96.1%98.7%98.4%88.7%
2026-10-17T06:13:41+00:0099.2%96.1%98.7%98.4%88.7%
2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:0099.2%96.1%98.7%98.4%88.7%
2026-10-17T07:45:24+00:0099.6%96.1%98.7%100.0%94.1%
2026-10-17T08:31:17+00:0099.6%96.1%98.7%100.0%94.1%
2026-10-17T09:16:46+00:0099.6%96.1%98.7%100.0%94.1%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:0099.6%96.1%98.7%100.0%94.1%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:0099.6%96.1%98.7%100.0%94.1%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES>99%85.0°F5.0°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
AIFS Single>99%80.5°F4.6°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 299%77.6°F4.1°F2026-10-16 18:00Pending
IFS Ensemble96%78.0°F5.4°F2026-10-16 00:00Pending
ICON94%76.1°F4.9°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
NWS forecast54%69.0°F4.5°F2026-10-17 03:00Pending
National Blend54%69.0°F5.6°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261021-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 17 · 04:42 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas high ≥ 69°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗