KLAS / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST98%Oct 17 · 10:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

>99%

99%

96%

94%

Consensus

98%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 97.0¢Risks 24.26u

ICONNO 3.0¢Risks 0.74u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +0.74u · ICON −0.74u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	—	—	—	85.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	94.7%	—	—	—	—	89.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	90.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	90.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	95.2%	—	—	—	—	96.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	90.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	92.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	95.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	97.3%	—	—	—	—	93.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	90.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	8.8%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	68.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	19.6%	—	81.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	—	—	—	46.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	13.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	8.3%	—	—	35.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	26.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	48.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	27.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	8.3%	—	—	36.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	98.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	5.0%	7.2%	84.9%	—	—	62.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	13.8%	—	79.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	37.6%	28.6%	81.1%	36.2%	—	86.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	19.9%	—	15.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	5.1%	41.3%	31.7%	98.6%	—	72.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	47.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	40.2%	53.0%	62.0%	32.3%	—	66.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	71.5%	—	34.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	57.9%	94.5%	96.7%	99.9%	—	57.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	94.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	88.0%	83.2%	85.7%	99.0%	—	79.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	95.3%	51.7%	94.4%	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	96.1%	90.3%	96.4%	99.9%	—	98.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	96.1%	98.2%	97.4%	—	—	98.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	98.7%	99.5%	98.2%	100.0%	—	99.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	98.3%	98.3%	98.2%	—	—	99.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	97.7%	92.8%	99.3%	100.0%	—	98.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	95.6%	91.2%	99.6%	—	—	98.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	98.8%	85.5%	99.9%	99.9%	—	99.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	99.5%	93.8%	99.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	99.6%	95.5%	99.9%	100.0%	—	96.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	99.8%	79.4%	99.9%	52.2%	—	99.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	99.2%	93.5%	100.0%	100.0%	0.8%	99.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	99.0%	98.6%	100.0%	100.0%	—	97.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	98.6%	98.3%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	99.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	97.0%	—	100.0%	100.0%	—	99.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	>99%	85.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	>99%	80.5°F	4.6°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	99%	77.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	96%	78.0°F	5.4°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
ICON	94%	76.1°F	4.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	69.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	69.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261021-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 17 · 04:42 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas high ≥ 69°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗