KLAS / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST91%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

96%

92%

91%

81%

Consensus

91%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 89.4¢Risks 44.70u

ICONNO 10.6¢Risks 5.30u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +5.30u · ICON −5.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T03:55:43+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T10:35:03+00:00	9.7%	72.1%	30.2%	35.8%	27.0%
2026-10-14T11:21:06+00:00	9.7%	87.2%	18.3%	35.8%	27.0%
2026-10-14T12:06:16+00:00	9.7%	87.2%	18.3%	35.8%	27.0%
2026-10-14T12:51:24+00:00	9.7%	87.2%	18.3%	35.8%	27.0%
2026-10-14T13:36:32+00:00	24.4%	87.2%	18.3%	35.8%	27.0%
2026-10-14T14:26:54+00:00	24.4%	87.2%	18.5%	35.8%	27.3%
2026-10-14T15:12:49+00:00	24.4%	84.5%	18.5%	35.8%	27.3%
2026-10-14T15:58:00+00:00	24.4%	84.5%	18.5%	35.8%	27.3%
2026-10-14T16:43:07+00:00	24.4%	84.5%	18.5%	35.8%	27.3%
2026-10-14T17:28:17+00:00	24.4%	84.5%	33.8%	35.8%	27.3%
2026-10-14T18:13:24+00:00	24.4%	84.5%	33.8%	35.8%	27.3%
2026-10-14T18:58:30+00:00	24.4%	84.5%	33.8%	35.8%	27.3%
2026-10-14T19:43:41+00:00	54.3%	84.5%	33.8%	97.2%	47.6%
2026-10-14T20:28:53+00:00	54.3%	84.5%	33.8%	97.2%	47.6%
2026-10-14T21:13:59+00:00	54.3%	84.5%	33.8%	97.2%	47.6%
2026-10-14T21:59:06+00:00	54.3%	84.5%	33.8%	97.2%	47.6%
2026-10-14T22:44:13+00:00	54.3%	84.5%	33.8%	97.2%	47.6%
2026-10-14T23:29:35+00:00	54.3%	84.5%	46.8%	97.2%	47.6%
2026-10-15T00:15:28+00:00	54.3%	84.5%	46.8%	97.2%	47.6%
2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00	54.3%	84.5%	46.8%	97.2%	47.6%
2026-10-15T01:46:24+00:00	34.1%	84.5%	46.8%	97.2%	47.6%
2026-10-15T02:31:32+00:00	34.1%	84.5%	46.8%	97.2%	47.6%
2026-10-15T03:16:40+00:00	34.1%	84.5%	46.8%	97.2%	47.6%
2026-10-15T04:02:43+00:00	34.1%	84.5%	46.8%	97.2%	47.6%
2026-10-15T04:48:13+00:00	34.1%	84.5%	46.8%	97.2%	47.6%
2026-10-15T05:33:24+00:00	34.1%	84.5%	32.3%	97.2%	47.6%
2026-10-15T06:18:31+00:00	34.1%	84.5%	32.3%	97.2%	47.6%
2026-10-15T07:03:42+00:00	34.1%	84.5%	32.3%	97.2%	47.6%
2026-10-15T07:50:42+00:00	11.8%	84.5%	32.3%	71.8%	52.3%
2026-10-15T08:35:54+00:00	11.8%	84.5%	32.3%	71.8%	52.3%
2026-10-15T09:21:48+00:00	11.8%	84.5%	32.3%	71.8%	52.3%
2026-10-15T10:07:44+00:00	11.8%	84.5%	32.3%	71.8%	52.3%
2026-10-15T10:53:52+00:00	11.8%	84.5%	34.2%	71.8%	52.3%
2026-10-15T11:39:43+00:00	11.8%	84.5%	34.2%	71.8%	52.3%
2026-10-15T12:24:59+00:00	11.8%	91.1%	34.2%	71.8%	52.3%
2026-10-15T13:10:42+00:00	11.8%	91.1%	34.2%	71.8%	52.3%
2026-10-15T13:55:56+00:00	44.1%	91.1%	34.2%	71.8%	52.2%
2026-10-15T14:48:28+00:00	44.1%	91.1%	34.2%	71.8%	52.2%
2026-10-16T04:25:18+00:00	82.8%	92.8%	38.2%	97.4%	61.1%
2026-10-16T05:10:35+00:00	82.8%	92.8%	41.5%	97.4%	61.1%
2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00	82.8%	92.8%	41.5%	97.4%	61.1%
2026-10-16T06:41:10+00:00	82.8%	92.8%	41.5%	97.4%	61.1%
2026-10-16T07:26:19+00:00	74.1%	92.8%	41.5%	97.4%	92.7%
2026-10-16T08:11:30+00:00	74.1%	92.8%	41.5%	97.4%	92.7%
2026-10-16T08:56:39+00:00	74.1%	92.8%	41.5%	97.4%	92.7%
2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00	74.1%	92.8%	41.5%	97.4%	92.7%
2026-10-16T10:27:00+00:00	74.1%	92.8%	41.5%	97.4%	92.7%
2026-10-16T11:12:28+00:00	74.1%	89.6%	39.4%	97.4%	92.7%
2026-10-16T11:57:44+00:00	74.1%	89.6%	39.4%	97.4%	92.7%
2026-10-16T12:42:52+00:00	74.1%	89.6%	39.4%	97.4%	92.7%
2026-10-16T13:29:06+00:00	88.7%	89.6%	39.4%	90.6%	92.7%
2026-10-16T14:20:02+00:00	88.7%	89.6%	39.4%	90.6%	92.6%
2026-10-16T15:05:51+00:00	88.7%	91.8%	39.4%	90.6%	92.6%
2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00	88.7%	91.8%	39.4%	90.6%	92.6%
2026-10-16T16:36:15+00:00	88.7%	91.8%	39.4%	90.6%	92.6%
2026-10-16T17:21:33+00:00	88.7%	91.8%	66.0%	90.6%	92.6%
2026-10-16T18:06:40+00:00	88.7%	91.8%	66.0%	90.6%	92.6%
2026-10-16T18:51:47+00:00	88.7%	91.8%	66.0%	90.6%	92.6%
2026-10-16T19:37:20+00:00	94.0%	91.8%	66.0%	90.6%	81.1%
2026-10-16T20:22:43+00:00	94.0%	91.8%	66.0%	90.6%	81.1%
2026-10-16T21:07:49+00:00	94.0%	91.8%	66.0%	90.6%	81.1%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	94.0%	91.8%	66.0%	90.6%	81.1%
2026-10-16T22:38:11+00:00	94.0%	91.8%	66.0%	96.4%	81.1%
2026-10-16T23:23:40+00:00	94.0%	91.8%	91.0%	96.4%	81.1%
2026-10-17T00:09:45+00:00	94.0%	91.8%	91.0%	96.4%	81.1%
2026-10-17T00:55:01+00:00	94.0%	91.8%	91.0%	96.4%	81.1%
2026-10-17T01:40:14+00:00	97.7%	91.8%	91.0%	96.4%	81.1%
2026-10-17T02:25:25+00:00	97.7%	91.8%	91.0%	96.4%	81.1%
2026-10-17T03:10:32+00:00	97.7%	91.8%	91.0%	96.4%	81.1%
2026-10-17T03:55:43+00:00	97.7%	91.8%	91.0%	96.4%	81.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	98%	80.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	96%	80.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	92%	78.0°F	5.4°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	91%	76.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
ICON	81%	75.8°F	6.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	71.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-16 14:00	Pending
National Blend	47%	70.0°F	7.8°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261021-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 14 · 10:35 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas high ≥ 71°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗