KLAS / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST91%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

96%

92%

91%

81%

Consensus

91%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 89.4¢Risks 44.70u

ICONNO 10.6¢Risks 5.30u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +5.30u · ICON −5.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	78.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	91.1%	—	—	—	—	83.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	85.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	91.9%	—	—	—	—	94.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	88.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	92.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	95.2%	—	—	—	—	89.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	84.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	7.0%	—	—	—	—	58.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	73.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	35.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	4.7%	—	—	25.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	17.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	36.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	24.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	17.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	4.3%	—	—	24.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	96.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	3.6%	75.6%	—	—	48.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	68.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	18.0%	70.2%	24.1%	—	77.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	11.4%	—	8.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	2.3%	27.9%	19.9%	96.5%	—	58.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	33.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	26.4%	38.0%	46.9%	20.0%	—	51.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	57.0%	—	21.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	42.1%	88.5%	92.5%	99.6%	—	41.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	65.1%	—	89.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	77.5%	70.7%	74.2%	97.2%	—	66.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	89.3%	35.0%	87.7%	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	90.6%	80.4%	91.3%	99.5%	—	95.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	90.4%	95.0%	93.2%	—	—	95.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	96.1%	98.1%	95.0%	100.0%	—	97.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	94.9%	94.9%	94.7%	—	—	97.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	93.5%	83.5%	97.6%	100.0%	—	95.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	88.6%	80.3%	98.5%	—	—	95.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	96.0%	70.6%	99.3%	99.6%	—	96.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	98.1%	84.4%	99.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	98.1%	87.5%	99.3%	100.0%	—	90.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	98.8%	60.0%	99.6%	30.5%	—	96.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	96.7%	82.5%	99.8%	100.0%	0.1%	95.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	95.7%	94.5%	99.8%	100.0%	—	92.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	94.1%	93.3%	99.9%	100.0%	99.9%	99.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	89.1%	—	100.0%	100.0%	—	97.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	98%	80.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	96%	80.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	92%	78.0°F	5.4°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	91%	76.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
ICON	81%	75.8°F	6.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	71.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-16 14:00	Pending
National Blend	47%	70.0°F	7.8°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261021-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 14 · 10:35 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas high ≥ 71°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗