KLAS / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST97%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

>99%

97%

96%

96%

Consensus

97%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

The models are within 4 percentage points. Under the proposed policy, no contract would match.

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T15:34:45+00:00	30.2%	86.0%	20.2%	60.7%	41.1%
2026-10-15T16:20:18+00:00	30.2%	86.0%	20.2%	60.7%	41.1%
2026-10-15T17:05:27+00:00	30.2%	86.0%	34.2%	60.7%	41.1%
2026-10-15T17:50:49+00:00	30.2%	86.0%	34.2%	60.7%	41.1%
2026-10-15T18:36:03+00:00	30.2%	86.0%	34.2%	60.7%	41.1%
2026-10-15T19:21:11+00:00	30.2%	86.0%	34.2%	60.7%	41.1%
2026-10-15T20:06:24+00:00	43.4%	86.0%	34.2%	94.9%	50.0%
2026-10-15T20:51:39+00:00	43.4%	86.0%	34.2%	94.9%	50.0%
2026-10-15T21:36:46+00:00	43.4%	86.0%	34.2%	94.9%	50.0%
2026-10-15T22:21:56+00:00	43.4%	86.0%	34.2%	94.9%	50.0%
2026-10-15T23:07:06+00:00	43.4%	86.0%	23.3%	94.9%	50.0%
2026-10-15T23:52:19+00:00	43.4%	86.0%	23.3%	94.9%	50.0%
2026-10-16T00:37:28+00:00	43.4%	86.0%	23.3%	94.9%	50.0%
2026-10-16T01:22:55+00:00	71.7%	86.0%	23.3%	94.9%	50.0%
2026-10-16T02:08:22+00:00	71.7%	86.0%	23.3%	94.9%	50.0%
2026-10-16T02:53:36+00:00	71.7%	86.0%	23.3%	94.9%	50.0%
2026-10-16T03:38:46+00:00	71.7%	86.0%	23.3%	94.9%	50.0%
2026-10-17T15:25:23+00:00	95.7%	99.4%	98.2%	99.4%	77.0%
2026-10-17T16:10:35+00:00	95.7%	99.4%	98.2%	99.4%	77.0%
2026-10-17T16:55:44+00:00	95.7%	99.4%	96.8%	99.4%	77.0%
2026-10-17T17:40:52+00:00	95.7%	99.4%	96.8%	99.4%	77.0%
2026-10-17T18:25:59+00:00	95.7%	99.4%	96.8%	99.4%	77.0%
2026-10-17T19:11:07+00:00	95.7%	99.4%	96.8%	99.4%	77.0%
2026-10-17T19:56:20+00:00	98.3%	99.4%	96.8%	99.3%	96.3%
2026-10-17T20:41:33+00:00	98.3%	99.4%	96.8%	99.3%	96.3%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	98.3%	99.4%	96.8%	99.3%	96.3%
2026-10-17T22:11:57+00:00	98.3%	99.4%	96.8%	99.3%	96.3%
2026-10-17T22:57:07+00:00	98.3%	99.4%	96.4%	99.3%	96.3%
2026-10-17T23:42:15+00:00	98.3%	99.4%	96.4%	99.3%	96.3%
2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00	98.3%	99.4%	96.4%	99.3%	96.3%
2026-10-18T01:12:58+00:00	98.3%	99.4%	96.4%	99.3%	96.3%
2026-10-18T01:58:16+00:00	97.4%	99.4%	96.4%	99.3%	96.3%
2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00	97.4%	99.4%	96.4%	99.3%	96.3%
2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00	97.4%	99.4%	96.4%	99.3%	96.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	82.0°F	3.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	>99%	84.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	97%	81.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	96%	79.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	96%	81.2°F	4.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	73.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	71.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261021-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas high ≥ 73°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗