KLAS / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST97%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

>99%

97%

96%

96%

Consensus

97%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

The models are within 4 percentage points. Under the proposed policy, no contract would match.

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

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Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	—	—	—	75.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	78.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	—	—	—	90.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	82.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	88.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	91.9%	—	—	—	—	83.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	77.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	47.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	63.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	25.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	2.4%	—	—	17.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	11.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	16.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	10.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	2.1%	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	92.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	1.6%	63.9%	—	—	35.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	55.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	15.3%	10.2%	57.0%	14.5%	—	65.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	4.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	17.0%	11.3%	92.6%	—	44.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	21.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	15.5%	24.5%	32.3%	11.0%	—	36.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	12.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	27.4%	78.8%	85.1%	98.8%	—	26.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	49.2%	—	79.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	55.0%	59.1%	93.2%	—	50.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	79.2%	20.8%	76.7%	—	—	4.5%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	81.0%	66.2%	82.2%	98.3%	—	88.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	80.4%	88.4%	85.0%	—	—	89.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	90.2%	94.7%	88.1%	99.9%	—	92.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	87.8%	87.8%	87.3%	—	—	94.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	84.7%	68.7%	93.2%	99.8%	—	87.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	75.9%	63.7%	95.3%	—	—	88.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	89.2%	51.0%	97.4%	98.4%	—	90.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	93.8%	68.4%	96.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	93.8%	72.7%	97.1%	99.8%	—	77.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	95.5%	37.8%	98.3%	14.1%	—	88.2%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	89.5%	63.7%	99.0%	99.9%	0.0%	87.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	86.8%	84.0%	98.8%	99.9%	—	79.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	82.6%	80.9%	99.5%	99.9%	99.3%	95.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	72.0%	—	99.6%	100.0%	—	90.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	82.0°F	3.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	>99%	84.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	97%	81.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	96%	79.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	96%	81.2°F	4.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	73.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	71.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261021-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas high ≥ 73°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗