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KLAS / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST74%Oct 18 · 14:04 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
90%
HRES
86%
WN2
81%
AIFS
68%
ICON
28%
Consensus
74%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 59.0¢Risks 58.95u
VS
ICONNO 41.0¢Risks 41.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +41.05u · ICON −41.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 80.2% · 2026-10-18T04:15:01+00:00AIFS Single: 80.2% · 2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00AIFS Single: 80.2% · 2026-10-18T05:45:23+00:00AIFS Single: 80.2% · 2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00AIFS Single: 80.2% · 2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00AIFS Single: 78.0% · 2026-10-18T08:01:59+00:00AIFS Single: 78.0% · 2026-10-18T08:47:14+00:00AIFS Single: 78.0% · 2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00AIFS Single: 78.0% · 2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00AIFS Single: 78.0% · 2026-10-18T11:03:03+00:00AIFS Single: 78.0% · 2026-10-18T11:48:20+00:00AIFS Single: 78.0% · 2026-10-18T12:33:58+00:00AIFS Single: 78.0% · 2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00AIFS Single: 68.0% · 2026-10-18T14:04:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.2% · 2026-10-18T04:15:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.2% · 2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.2% · 2026-10-18T05:45:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.2% · 2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.2% · 2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.2% · 2026-10-18T08:01:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.2% · 2026-10-18T08:47:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.2% · 2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.2% · 2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 90.5% · 2026-10-18T11:03:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 90.5% · 2026-10-18T11:48:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 90.5% · 2026-10-18T12:33:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 90.5% · 2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 89.7% · 2026-10-18T14:04:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.6% · 2026-10-18T04:15:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.9% · 2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.9% · 2026-10-18T05:45:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.9% · 2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.9% · 2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.9% · 2026-10-18T08:01:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.9% · 2026-10-18T08:47:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.9% · 2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.9% · 2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.3% · 2026-10-18T11:03:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.3% · 2026-10-18T11:48:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.3% · 2026-10-18T12:33:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.3% · 2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.3% · 2026-10-18T14:04:16+00:00IFS HRES: 92.5% · 2026-10-18T04:15:01+00:00IFS HRES: 92.5% · 2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00IFS HRES: 92.5% · 2026-10-18T05:45:23+00:00IFS HRES: 92.5% · 2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00IFS HRES: 92.5% · 2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00IFS HRES: 85.9% · 2026-10-18T08:01:59+00:00IFS HRES: 85.9% · 2026-10-18T08:47:14+00:00IFS HRES: 85.9% · 2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00IFS HRES: 85.9% · 2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00IFS HRES: 85.9% · 2026-10-18T11:03:03+00:00IFS HRES: 85.9% · 2026-10-18T11:48:20+00:00IFS HRES: 85.9% · 2026-10-18T12:33:58+00:00IFS HRES: 85.9% · 2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00IFS HRES: 85.9% · 2026-10-18T14:04:16+00:00ICON: 77.6% · 2026-10-18T04:15:01+00:00ICON: 77.6% · 2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00ICON: 77.6% · 2026-10-18T05:45:23+00:00ICON: 77.6% · 2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00ICON: 77.6% · 2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00ICON: 28.1% · 2026-10-18T08:01:59+00:00ICON: 28.1% · 2026-10-18T08:47:14+00:00ICON: 28.1% · 2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00ICON: 28.1% · 2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00ICON: 28.1% · 2026-10-18T11:03:03+00:00ICON: 28.1% · 2026-10-18T11:48:20+00:00ICON: 28.1% · 2026-10-18T12:33:58+00:00ICON: 28.1% · 2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00ICON: 28.2% · 2026-10-18T14:04:16+00:0010-18 04:1510-18 09:3210-18 14:04
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-18T14:04:16+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-18T04:15:01+00:0080.2%88.2%67.6%92.5%77.6%
2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:0080.2%88.2%81.9%92.5%77.6%
2026-10-18T05:45:23+00:0080.2%88.2%81.9%92.5%77.6%
2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:0080.2%88.2%81.9%92.5%77.6%
2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:0080.2%88.2%81.9%92.5%77.6%
2026-10-18T08:01:59+00:0078.0%88.2%81.9%85.9%28.1%
2026-10-18T08:47:14+00:0078.0%88.2%81.9%85.9%28.1%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:0078.0%88.2%81.9%85.9%28.1%
2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:0078.0%88.2%81.9%85.9%28.1%
2026-10-18T11:03:03+00:0078.0%90.5%81.3%85.9%28.1%
2026-10-18T11:48:20+00:0078.0%90.5%81.3%85.9%28.1%
2026-10-18T12:33:58+00:0078.0%90.5%81.3%85.9%28.1%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:0078.0%90.5%81.3%85.9%28.1%
2026-10-18T14:04:16+00:0068.0%89.7%81.3%85.9%28.2%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble90%82.3°F3.8°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
IFS HRES86%82.3°F4.5°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 281%80.5°F3.4°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
AIFS Single68%79.5°F4.3°F2026-10-18 06:00Pending
National Blend61%79.0°F5.6°F2026-10-18 06:00Pending
NWS forecast55%78.0°F3.9°F2026-10-18 03:00Pending
ICON28%75.2°F4.0°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261021-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 18 · 04:15 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas high ≥ 78°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗