KLAS / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST74%Oct 18 · 14:04 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

86%

81%

68%

28%

Consensus

74%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 59.0¢Risks 58.95u

ICONNO 41.0¢Risks 41.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +41.05u · ICON −41.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	5.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	74.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	35.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	8.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.3%	—	—	4.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	2.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	3.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	2.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.2%	—	—	3.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	72.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	31.1%	—	—	11.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	23.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	1.6%	24.1%	2.6%	—	31.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	3.1%	1.7%	70.3%	—	14.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	4.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	5.0%	7.8%	1.5%	—	9.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	1.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	42.1%	51.6%	89.2%	—	5.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	41.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	23.8%	17.8%	20.7%	67.0%	—	14.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	39.8%	3.0%	36.6%	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	24.8%	43.0%	84.4%	—	54.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	39.3%	52.7%	46.4%	—	—	54.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	55.5%	67.8%	50.9%	97.2%	—	60.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	49.0%	49.0%	48.1%	—	—	64.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	42.3%	23.2%	60.6%	94.9%	—	48.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	29.1%	18.3%	66.5%	—	—	47.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	10.3%	74.1%	80.3%	—	50.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	58.4%	19.8%	67.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	56.5%	22.1%	69.9%	93.8%	—	27.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	61.1%	4.2%	76.0%	0.6%	—	41.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	41.9%	13.4%	81.0%	95.8%	0.0%	37.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	34.7%	30.4%	77.5%	94.2%	—	24.4%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	26.6%	24.6%	84.9%	92.9%	80.9%	56.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	85.0%	97.8%	—	37.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	90%	82.3°F	3.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	86%	82.3°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	81%	80.5°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	68%	79.5°F	4.3°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
National Blend	61%	79.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	78.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
ICON	28%	75.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261021-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 18 · 04:15 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas high ≥ 78°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗