KLAS / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST50%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

62%

57%

53%

41%

34%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 48.4¢Risks 48.35u

AIFSNO 51.6¢Risks 51.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +51.65u · AIFS −51.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T03:55:43+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T04:25:18+00:00	37.0%	68.9%	31.1%	93.3%	50.8%
2026-10-16T05:10:35+00:00	37.0%	68.9%	39.1%	93.3%	50.8%
2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00	37.0%	68.9%	39.1%	93.3%	50.8%
2026-10-16T06:41:10+00:00	37.0%	68.9%	39.1%	93.3%	50.8%
2026-10-16T07:26:19+00:00	18.2%	68.9%	39.1%	93.3%	76.8%
2026-10-16T08:11:30+00:00	18.2%	68.9%	39.1%	93.3%	76.8%
2026-10-16T08:56:39+00:00	18.2%	68.9%	39.1%	93.3%	76.8%
2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00	18.2%	68.9%	39.1%	93.3%	76.8%
2026-10-16T10:27:00+00:00	18.2%	68.9%	39.1%	93.3%	76.8%
2026-10-16T11:12:28+00:00	18.2%	58.6%	45.7%	93.3%	76.8%
2026-10-16T11:57:44+00:00	18.2%	58.6%	45.7%	93.3%	76.8%
2026-10-16T12:42:52+00:00	18.2%	58.6%	45.7%	93.3%	76.8%
2026-10-16T13:29:06+00:00	30.2%	58.6%	45.7%	63.6%	76.8%
2026-10-16T14:20:02+00:00	30.2%	58.6%	45.7%	63.6%	77.1%
2026-10-16T15:05:51+00:00	30.2%	62.5%	45.7%	63.6%	77.1%
2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00	30.2%	62.5%	45.7%	63.6%	77.1%
2026-10-16T16:36:15+00:00	30.2%	62.5%	45.7%	63.6%	77.1%
2026-10-16T17:21:33+00:00	30.2%	62.5%	44.9%	63.6%	77.1%
2026-10-16T18:06:40+00:00	30.2%	62.5%	44.9%	63.6%	77.1%
2026-10-16T18:51:47+00:00	30.2%	62.5%	44.9%	63.6%	77.1%
2026-10-16T19:37:20+00:00	36.3%	62.5%	44.9%	63.6%	57.2%
2026-10-16T20:22:43+00:00	36.3%	62.5%	44.9%	63.6%	57.2%
2026-10-16T21:07:49+00:00	36.3%	62.5%	44.9%	63.6%	57.2%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	36.3%	62.5%	44.9%	63.6%	57.2%
2026-10-16T22:38:11+00:00	36.3%	62.5%	44.9%	41.0%	57.2%
2026-10-16T23:23:40+00:00	36.3%	62.5%	53.4%	41.0%	57.2%
2026-10-17T00:09:45+00:00	36.3%	62.5%	53.4%	41.0%	57.2%
2026-10-17T00:55:01+00:00	36.3%	62.5%	53.4%	41.0%	57.2%
2026-10-17T01:40:14+00:00	34.2%	62.5%	53.4%	41.0%	57.2%
2026-10-17T02:25:25+00:00	34.2%	62.5%	53.4%	41.0%	57.2%
2026-10-17T03:10:32+00:00	34.2%	62.5%	53.4%	41.0%	57.2%
2026-10-17T03:55:43+00:00	34.2%	62.5%	53.4%	41.0%	57.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	62%	71.4°F	9.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
ICON	57%	69.8°F	7.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	69.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	69.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-16 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	53%	68.9°F	4.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	41%	67.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	34%	66.3°F	5.4°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261022-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 16 · 04:25 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas high ≥ 69°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗