KLAS / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST50%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

62%

57%

53%

41%

34%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 48.4¢Risks 48.35u

AIFSNO 51.6¢Risks 51.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +51.65u · AIFS −51.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	84.8%	—	—	—	—	89.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	88.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	95.3%	—	—	—	—	94.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	90.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	92.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	96.4%	—	—	—	—	92.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	92.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	90.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	68.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	14.5%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	31.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	44.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	26.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	24.3%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	40.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	31.0%	—	74.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	52.5%	—	—	59.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	32.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	11.7%	—	41.6%	—	—	76.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	48.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	1.5%	48.6%	—	—	53.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	56.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	4.5%	21.9%	54.9%	3.6%	—	48.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	12.5%	—	32.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	4.2%	61.6%	91.6%	69.6%	—	35.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	70.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	32.3%	37.2%	52.3%	—	38.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	21.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	38.2%	23.6%	59.5%	83.2%	—	69.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	45.1%	—	—	68.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	32.2%	82.2%	28.6%	80.5%	—	75.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	44.9%	38.2%	60.2%	—	—	70.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	34.6%	54.4%	77.2%	89.1%	—	58.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	29.4%	23.5%	79.8%	—	—	60.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	25.9%	24.4%	93.7%	95.7%	—	52.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	37.9%	61.2%	61.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	30.4%	42.3%	65.2%	96.0%	—	57.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	33.5%	34.4%	83.6%	—	—	7.3%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	21.2%	57.2%	86.6%	97.7%	—	45.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	32.6%	60.5%	95.5%	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	29.2%	64.9%	89.6%	95.0%	34.1%	65.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	22.3%	—	92.9%	60.0%	—	47.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	62%	71.4°F	9.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
ICON	57%	69.8°F	7.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	69.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	69.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-16 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	53%	68.9°F	4.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	41%	67.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	34%	66.3°F	5.4°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261022-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 16 · 04:25 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas high ≥ 69°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗