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KLAS / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≥ 70°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST28%Oct 15 · 10:07 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
58%
HRES
39%
WN2
39%
ICON
18%
AIFS
6%
Consensus
28%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 31.9¢Risks 31.95u
VS
AIFSNO 68.0¢Risks 68.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +68.05u · AIFS −68.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 6.1% · 2026-10-15T07:50:42+00:00AIFS Single: 6.1% · 2026-10-15T08:35:54+00:00AIFS Single: 6.1% · 2026-10-15T09:21:48+00:00AIFS Single: 6.1% · 2026-10-15T10:07:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 57.8% · 2026-10-15T07:50:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 57.8% · 2026-10-15T08:35:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 57.8% · 2026-10-15T09:21:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 57.8% · 2026-10-15T10:07:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 39.1% · 2026-10-15T07:50:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 39.1% · 2026-10-15T08:35:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 39.1% · 2026-10-15T09:21:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 39.1% · 2026-10-15T10:07:44+00:00IFS HRES: 39.4% · 2026-10-15T07:50:42+00:00IFS HRES: 39.4% · 2026-10-15T08:35:54+00:00IFS HRES: 39.4% · 2026-10-15T09:21:48+00:00IFS HRES: 39.4% · 2026-10-15T10:07:44+00:00ICON: 17.7% · 2026-10-15T07:50:42+00:00ICON: 17.7% · 2026-10-15T08:35:54+00:00ICON: 17.7% · 2026-10-15T09:21:48+00:00ICON: 17.7% · 2026-10-15T10:07:44+00:0010-15 07:5010-15 09:2110-15 10:07
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-15T10:07:44+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-15T07:50:42+00:006.1%57.8%39.1%39.4%17.7%
2026-10-15T08:35:54+00:006.1%57.8%39.1%39.4%17.7%
2026-10-15T09:21:48+00:006.1%57.8%39.1%39.4%17.7%
2026-10-15T10:07:44+00:006.1%57.8%39.1%39.4%17.7%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble58%71.4°F9.7°F2026-10-14 00:00Pending
National Blend53%70.0°F6.6°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
IFS HRES39%67.8°F6.3°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 239%68.0°F5.4°F2026-10-14 18:00Pending
ICON18%60.3°F9.9°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
AIFS Single6%60.8°F5.6°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 70°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261022-TMAX-GE70
Opened Oct 15 · 07:50 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas high ≥ 70°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗