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KLAS / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST56%Oct 18 · 14:04 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
87%
WN2
54%
ICON
52%
AIFS
49%
HRES
37%
Consensus
56%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 61.9¢Risks 61.95u
VS
HRESNO 38.1¢Risks 38.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +38.05u · HRES −38.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 63.4% · 2026-10-18T04:15:02+00:00AIFS Single: 63.4% · 2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00AIFS Single: 63.4% · 2026-10-18T05:45:23+00:00AIFS Single: 63.4% · 2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00AIFS Single: 63.4% · 2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00AIFS Single: 53.5% · 2026-10-18T08:01:59+00:00AIFS Single: 53.5% · 2026-10-18T08:47:14+00:00AIFS Single: 53.5% · 2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00AIFS Single: 53.5% · 2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00AIFS Single: 53.5% · 2026-10-18T11:03:03+00:00AIFS Single: 53.5% · 2026-10-18T11:48:20+00:00AIFS Single: 53.5% · 2026-10-18T12:33:58+00:00AIFS Single: 53.5% · 2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00AIFS Single: 49.1% · 2026-10-18T14:04:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.7% · 2026-10-18T04:15:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.7% · 2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.7% · 2026-10-18T05:45:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.7% · 2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.7% · 2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.7% · 2026-10-18T08:01:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.7% · 2026-10-18T08:47:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.7% · 2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.7% · 2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.4% · 2026-10-18T11:03:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.4% · 2026-10-18T11:48:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.4% · 2026-10-18T12:33:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.4% · 2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.2% · 2026-10-18T14:04:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 42.3% · 2026-10-18T04:15:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 64.2% · 2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 64.2% · 2026-10-18T05:45:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 64.2% · 2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 64.2% · 2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 64.2% · 2026-10-18T08:01:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 64.2% · 2026-10-18T08:47:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 64.2% · 2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 64.2% · 2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 54.3% · 2026-10-18T11:03:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 54.3% · 2026-10-18T11:48:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 54.3% · 2026-10-18T12:33:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 54.3% · 2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 54.3% · 2026-10-18T14:04:16+00:00IFS HRES: 97.1% · 2026-10-18T04:15:02+00:00IFS HRES: 97.1% · 2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00IFS HRES: 97.1% · 2026-10-18T05:45:23+00:00IFS HRES: 97.1% · 2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00IFS HRES: 97.1% · 2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00IFS HRES: 36.7% · 2026-10-18T08:01:59+00:00IFS HRES: 36.7% · 2026-10-18T08:47:14+00:00IFS HRES: 36.7% · 2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00IFS HRES: 36.7% · 2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00IFS HRES: 36.7% · 2026-10-18T11:03:03+00:00IFS HRES: 36.7% · 2026-10-18T11:48:20+00:00IFS HRES: 36.7% · 2026-10-18T12:33:58+00:00IFS HRES: 36.7% · 2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00IFS HRES: 36.7% · 2026-10-18T14:04:16+00:00ICON: 79.8% · 2026-10-18T04:15:02+00:00ICON: 79.8% · 2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00ICON: 79.8% · 2026-10-18T05:45:23+00:00ICON: 79.8% · 2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00ICON: 79.8% · 2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00ICON: 51.6% · 2026-10-18T08:01:59+00:00ICON: 51.6% · 2026-10-18T08:47:14+00:00ICON: 51.6% · 2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00ICON: 51.6% · 2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00ICON: 51.6% · 2026-10-18T11:03:03+00:00ICON: 51.6% · 2026-10-18T11:48:20+00:00ICON: 51.6% · 2026-10-18T12:33:58+00:00ICON: 51.6% · 2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00ICON: 51.6% · 2026-10-18T14:04:16+00:0010-18 04:1510-18 09:3210-18 14:04
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-18T14:04:16+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-18T04:15:02+00:0063.4%92.7%42.3%97.1%79.8%
2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:0063.4%92.7%64.2%97.1%79.8%
2026-10-18T05:45:23+00:0063.4%92.7%64.2%97.1%79.8%
2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:0063.4%92.7%64.2%97.1%79.8%
2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:0063.4%92.7%64.2%97.1%79.8%
2026-10-18T08:01:59+00:0053.5%92.7%64.2%36.7%51.6%
2026-10-18T08:47:14+00:0053.5%92.7%64.2%36.7%51.6%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:0053.5%92.7%64.2%36.7%51.6%
2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:0053.5%92.7%64.2%36.7%51.6%
2026-10-18T11:03:03+00:0053.5%87.4%54.3%36.7%51.6%
2026-10-18T11:48:20+00:0053.5%87.4%54.3%36.7%51.6%
2026-10-18T12:33:58+00:0053.5%87.4%54.3%36.7%51.6%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:0053.5%87.4%54.3%36.7%51.6%
2026-10-18T14:04:16+00:0049.1%87.2%54.3%36.7%51.6%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble87%79.6°F8.0°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
National Blend60%72.0°F5.6°F2026-10-18 06:00Pending
NWS forecast54%71.0°F4.5°F2026-10-18 03:00Pending
WeatherNext 254%70.9°F3.7°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
ICON52%70.7°F4.9°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
AIFS Single49%70.4°F4.6°F2026-10-18 06:00Pending
IFS HRES37%68.8°F5.0°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261022-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 18 · 04:15 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas high ≥ 71°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗