KLAS / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST56%Oct 18 · 14:04 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

87%

54%

52%

49%

37%

Consensus

56%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 61.9¢Risks 61.95u

HRESNO 38.1¢Risks 38.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +38.05u · HRES −38.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	83.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	92.1%	—	—	—	—	91.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	85.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	93.7%	—	—	—	—	88.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	85.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	22.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	7.2%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	17.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	16.3%	—	—	—	—	37.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	12.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	29.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	34.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	63.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	25.9%	—	40.1%	—	—	46.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	21.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	29.5%	—	—	65.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	35.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	0.6%	35.5%	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	43.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	13.0%	40.9%	1.6%	—	34.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	20.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	47.1%	84.4%	55.8%	—	23.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	56.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	5.4%	20.0%	23.9%	37.2%	—	25.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	12.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	24.2%	13.1%	43.6%	71.2%	—	54.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	29.7%	—	—	52.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	69.2%	16.2%	67.0%	—	60.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	23.3%	43.2%	—	—	54.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	20.2%	37.1%	62.1%	78.6%	—	41.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	16.1%	12.1%	64.9%	—	—	42.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	12.4%	85.6%	89.4%	—	34.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	21.7%	42.5%	42.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	24.7%	46.1%	89.8%	—	38.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	17.7%	18.3%	68.3%	—	—	2.5%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	9.4%	36.9%	72.4%	92.9%	—	26.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	16.3%	39.5%	87.9%	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	13.7%	43.5%	76.2%	86.3%	16.9%	44.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	81.7%	37.8%	—	26.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	87%	79.6°F	8.0°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	60%	72.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	71.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	54%	70.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	52%	70.7°F	4.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	49%	70.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	37%	68.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261022-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 18 · 04:15 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas high ≥ 71°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗