KLAS / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST68%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

85%

82%

77%

59%

50%

Consensus

68%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 67.3¢Risks 67.30u

ICONNO 32.7¢Risks 32.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +32.70u · ICON −32.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:08+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T04:42:42+00:00	74.6%	57.7%	76.6%	82.7%	76.2%
2026-10-17T05:28:30+00:00	74.6%	57.7%	64.5%	82.7%	76.2%
2026-10-17T06:13:41+00:00	74.6%	57.7%	64.5%	82.7%	76.2%
2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00	74.6%	57.7%	64.5%	82.7%	76.2%
2026-10-17T07:45:24+00:00	72.3%	57.7%	64.5%	54.8%	93.3%
2026-10-17T08:31:17+00:00	72.3%	57.7%	64.5%	54.8%	93.3%
2026-10-17T09:16:46+00:00	72.3%	57.7%	64.5%	54.8%	93.3%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00	72.3%	57.7%	64.5%	54.8%	93.3%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	72.3%	57.7%	64.5%	54.8%	93.3%
2026-10-17T11:32:18+00:00	72.3%	75.1%	65.0%	54.8%	93.3%
2026-10-17T12:17:30+00:00	72.3%	75.1%	65.0%	54.8%	93.3%
2026-10-17T13:02:38+00:00	72.3%	75.1%	65.0%	54.8%	93.3%
2026-10-17T13:47:58+00:00	71.7%	75.1%	65.0%	54.8%	93.3%
2026-10-17T14:39:20+00:00	71.7%	75.0%	65.0%	54.8%	93.2%
2026-10-17T15:25:23+00:00	71.7%	77.5%	65.0%	54.8%	93.2%
2026-10-17T16:10:35+00:00	71.7%	77.5%	65.0%	54.8%	93.2%
2026-10-17T16:55:44+00:00	71.7%	77.5%	54.3%	54.8%	93.2%
2026-10-17T17:40:52+00:00	71.7%	77.5%	54.3%	54.8%	93.2%
2026-10-17T18:25:59+00:00	71.7%	77.5%	54.3%	54.8%	93.2%
2026-10-17T19:11:07+00:00	71.7%	77.5%	54.3%	54.8%	93.2%
2026-10-17T19:56:21+00:00	77.0%	77.5%	54.3%	81.8%	88.0%
2026-10-17T20:41:33+00:00	77.0%	77.5%	54.3%	81.8%	88.0%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	77.0%	77.5%	54.3%	81.8%	88.0%
2026-10-17T22:11:57+00:00	77.0%	77.5%	54.3%	81.8%	88.0%
2026-10-17T22:57:07+00:00	77.0%	77.8%	62.6%	81.8%	88.0%
2026-10-17T23:42:15+00:00	77.0%	77.9%	62.6%	81.8%	88.0%
2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00	77.0%	77.9%	62.6%	81.8%	88.0%
2026-10-18T01:12:58+00:00	77.0%	77.9%	62.6%	81.8%	88.0%
2026-10-18T01:58:16+00:00	74.7%	77.9%	62.6%	81.8%	88.0%
2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00	74.7%	77.9%	62.6%	81.8%	88.0%
2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00	74.7%	77.9%	62.6%	81.8%	88.0%
2026-10-18T04:15:03+00:00	74.7%	77.9%	62.6%	81.8%	88.0%
2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00	74.7%	77.9%	59.3%	81.8%	88.0%
2026-10-18T05:45:23+00:00	74.7%	77.9%	59.3%	81.8%	88.0%
2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00	74.7%	77.9%	59.3%	81.8%	88.0%
2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00	74.7%	77.9%	59.3%	81.8%	88.0%
2026-10-18T08:02:00+00:00	72.1%	77.9%	59.3%	84.6%	74.3%
2026-10-18T08:47:14+00:00	72.1%	77.9%	59.3%	84.6%	74.3%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00	72.1%	77.9%	59.3%	84.6%	74.3%
2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00	72.1%	77.9%	59.3%	84.6%	74.3%
2026-10-18T11:03:03+00:00	72.1%	81.8%	67.8%	84.6%	74.3%
2026-10-18T11:48:20+00:00	72.1%	81.8%	67.8%	84.6%	74.3%
2026-10-18T12:33:58+00:00	72.1%	81.8%	67.8%	84.6%	74.3%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00	72.1%	81.8%	67.8%	84.6%	74.3%
2026-10-18T14:04:16+00:00	74.1%	81.3%	67.8%	84.6%	74.3%
2026-10-18T14:56:15+00:00	74.1%	81.3%	67.8%	84.6%	74.3%
2026-10-18T15:41:41+00:00	74.1%	81.5%	67.8%	84.6%	74.3%
2026-10-18T16:27:01+00:00	74.1%	81.5%	67.8%	84.6%	74.3%
2026-10-18T17:12:11+00:00	74.1%	81.5%	56.8%	84.6%	74.3%
2026-10-18T17:57:40+00:00	74.1%	81.5%	56.8%	84.6%	74.3%
2026-10-18T18:42:50+00:00	74.1%	81.5%	56.8%	84.6%	74.3%
2026-10-18T19:28:02+00:00	74.1%	81.5%	56.8%	84.6%	50.0%
2026-10-18T20:13:11+00:00	74.1%	81.5%	56.8%	84.6%	50.0%
2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00	74.1%	81.5%	56.8%	84.6%	50.0%
2026-10-18T21:43:28+00:00	74.1%	81.5%	56.8%	84.6%	50.0%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00	74.1%	81.5%	56.8%	84.6%	50.0%
2026-10-18T23:13:47+00:00	74.1%	81.5%	58.7%	84.6%	50.0%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00	74.1%	81.5%	58.7%	84.6%	50.0%
2026-10-19T00:44:12+00:00	74.1%	81.5%	58.7%	84.6%	50.0%
2026-10-19T01:29:39+00:00	77.3%	81.5%	58.7%	84.6%	50.0%
2026-10-19T02:14:49+00:00	77.3%	81.5%	58.7%	84.6%	50.0%
2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00	77.3%	81.5%	58.7%	84.6%	50.0%
2026-10-19T03:45:08+00:00	77.3%	81.5%	58.7%	84.6%	50.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	85%	73.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	82%	72.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	77%	71.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	68.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	59%	68.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	68.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
ICON	50%	67.5°F	6.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261023-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 17 · 04:42 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas high ≥ 68°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗