KLAS / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST68%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

85%

82%

77%

59%

50%

Consensus

68%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 67.3¢Risks 67.30u

ICONNO 32.7¢Risks 32.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +32.70u · ICON −32.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	—	—	—	89.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	94.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	90.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	94.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	92.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	76.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	81.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	64.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	31.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	47.7%	—	—	—	—	63.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	77.0%	—	30.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	74.1%	—	32.4%	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	62.9%	—	68.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	41.6%	—	—	—	—	79.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	36.1%	—	72.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	—	—	—	60.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	25.0%	—	72.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	34.2%	—	18.5%	—	—	51.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	40.8%	—	78.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	6.8%	22.8%	—	—	36.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	57.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	38.9%	67.0%	43.0%	5.1%	—	55.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	48.6%	—	55.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	42.7%	90.0%	67.0%	72.8%	—	50.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	61.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	49.2%	81.6%	47.7%	84.5%	—	51.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	46.1%	—	63.8%	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	60.3%	80.0%	75.8%	—	57.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	43.5%	—	57.3%	—	—	40.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	42.5%	28.6%	66.2%	90.3%	—	50.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	47.4%	11.1%	73.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	46.5%	71.6%	77.9%	79.8%	—	45.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	49.1%	50.9%	72.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	55.5%	49.1%	79.1%	89.0%	—	33.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	54.7%	69.1%	78.3%	—	—	28.4%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	52.9%	65.2%	51.9%	76.8%	32.1%	37.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	40.1%	—	49.0%	—	—	27.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	85%	73.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	82%	72.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	77%	71.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	68.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	59%	68.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	68.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
ICON	50%	67.5°F	6.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261023-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 17 · 04:42 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas high ≥ 68°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗