KLAS / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST68%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

78%

73%

70%

69%

52%

Consensus

68%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 65.3¢Risks 65.35u

EPSNO 34.7¢Risks 34.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +34.65u · EPS −34.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T03:55:43+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T13:29:06+00:00	65.6%	47.3%	60.9%	70.2%	30.0%
2026-10-16T14:20:02+00:00	65.5%	47.3%	60.8%	70.1%	30.1%
2026-10-16T15:05:51+00:00	65.5%	52.2%	60.8%	70.1%	30.1%
2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00	65.5%	52.2%	60.8%	70.1%	30.1%
2026-10-16T16:36:15+00:00	65.5%	52.2%	60.8%	70.1%	30.1%
2026-10-16T17:21:33+00:00	65.5%	52.2%	57.8%	70.1%	30.1%
2026-10-16T18:06:40+00:00	65.5%	52.2%	57.8%	70.1%	30.1%
2026-10-16T18:51:47+00:00	65.5%	52.2%	57.8%	70.1%	30.1%
2026-10-16T19:37:20+00:00	61.0%	52.2%	57.8%	70.1%	73.0%
2026-10-16T20:22:43+00:00	61.0%	52.2%	57.8%	70.1%	73.0%
2026-10-16T21:07:49+00:00	61.0%	52.2%	57.8%	70.1%	73.0%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	61.0%	52.2%	57.8%	70.1%	73.0%
2026-10-16T22:38:11+00:00	61.0%	52.2%	57.8%	78.5%	73.0%
2026-10-16T23:23:40+00:00	61.0%	52.2%	70.2%	78.5%	73.0%
2026-10-17T00:09:45+00:00	61.0%	52.2%	70.2%	78.5%	73.0%
2026-10-17T00:55:01+00:00	61.0%	52.2%	70.2%	78.5%	73.0%
2026-10-17T01:40:14+00:00	68.7%	52.2%	70.2%	78.5%	73.0%
2026-10-17T02:25:25+00:00	68.7%	52.2%	70.2%	78.5%	73.0%
2026-10-17T03:10:32+00:00	68.7%	52.2%	70.2%	78.5%	73.0%
2026-10-17T03:55:43+00:00	68.7%	52.2%	70.2%	78.5%	73.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	78%	73.6°F	6.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
ICON	73%	74.6°F	9.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	70%	71.2°F	5.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	69%	71.3°F	5.8°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	69.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	52%	68.9°F	7.2°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261023-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 16 · 13:29 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas high ≥ 69°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗