KLAS / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST68%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

78%

73%

70%

69%

52%

Consensus

68%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 65.3¢Risks 65.35u

EPSNO 34.7¢Risks 34.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +34.65u · EPS −34.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	86.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	92.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	88.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	92.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	90.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	72.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	78.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	44.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	17.8%	—	—	—	—	58.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	26.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	72.4%	—	25.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	69.2%	—	27.3%	—	—	61.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	57.1%	—	62.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	35.8%	—	—	—	—	74.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	30.5%	—	67.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	54.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	20.2%	—	67.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	28.4%	—	14.4%	—	—	45.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	73.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	27.1%	4.8%	18.0%	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	50.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	32.3%	60.4%	36.2%	3.5%	—	48.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	47.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	35.7%	86.5%	60.1%	66.3%	—	43.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	53.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	41.7%	76.1%	40.2%	79.5%	—	43.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	56.2%	—	—	14.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	33.7%	52.4%	73.9%	69.2%	—	49.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	35.6%	—	49.2%	—	—	32.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	34.5%	21.9%	58.3%	86.2%	—	41.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	7.5%	65.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	37.9%	63.7%	70.9%	73.1%	—	37.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	40.2%	42.0%	64.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	46.3%	40.0%	71.8%	84.0%	—	25.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	45.3%	60.3%	70.8%	—	—	21.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	43.2%	55.8%	42.3%	68.7%	24.0%	28.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	30.8%	—	39.1%	—	—	19.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	78%	73.6°F	6.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
ICON	73%	74.6°F	9.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	70%	71.2°F	5.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	69%	71.3°F	5.8°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	69.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	52%	68.9°F	7.2°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261023-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 16 · 13:29 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas high ≥ 69°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗