KLAS / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST47%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

62%

62%

45%

39%

29%

Consensus

47%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 45.3¢Risks 45.30u

WN2NO 54.7¢Risks 54.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +54.70u · WN2 −54.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:08+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T04:31:38+00:00	55.6%	64.8%	30.5%	69.2%	31.2%
2026-10-19T05:17:09+00:00	55.6%	64.8%	41.3%	69.2%	31.2%
2026-10-19T06:02:17+00:00	55.6%	64.8%	41.3%	69.2%	31.2%
2026-10-19T06:47:25+00:00	55.6%	64.8%	41.3%	69.2%	31.2%
2026-10-19T07:33:59+00:00	55.2%	64.8%	41.3%	49.2%	60.5%
2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00	55.2%	64.8%	41.3%	49.2%	60.5%
2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00	55.2%	64.8%	41.3%	49.2%	60.5%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00	55.2%	64.8%	41.3%	49.2%	60.5%
2026-10-19T10:35:29+00:00	55.2%	64.8%	41.3%	49.2%	60.5%
2026-10-19T11:21:23+00:00	55.2%	60.7%	26.9%	49.2%	60.5%
2026-10-19T12:06:42+00:00	55.2%	60.7%	26.9%	49.2%	60.5%
2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00	55.2%	60.7%	26.9%	49.2%	60.5%
2026-10-19T13:37:08+00:00	56.9%	60.7%	26.9%	49.2%	60.5%
2026-10-19T14:28:07+00:00	56.9%	60.7%	26.8%	49.2%	60.5%
2026-10-19T15:14:01+00:00	56.9%	61.5%	26.8%	49.2%	60.5%
2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00	56.9%	61.5%	26.8%	49.2%	60.5%
2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:00	56.9%	61.5%	26.8%	49.2%	60.5%
2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:00	56.9%	61.5%	37.4%	49.2%	60.5%
2026-10-19T18:14:42+00:00	56.9%	61.5%	37.4%	49.2%	60.5%
2026-10-19T19:00:23+00:00	56.9%	61.5%	37.4%	49.2%	60.5%
2026-10-19T19:45:33+00:00	62.8%	61.5%	37.4%	45.2%	38.7%
2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00	62.8%	61.5%	37.4%	45.2%	38.7%
2026-10-19T21:15:56+00:00	62.8%	61.5%	37.4%	45.2%	38.7%
2026-10-19T22:01:05+00:00	62.8%	61.5%	37.4%	45.2%	38.7%
2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00	62.8%	61.5%	37.4%	45.2%	38.7%
2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00	62.8%	61.5%	28.6%	45.2%	38.7%
2026-10-20T00:17:12+00:00	62.8%	61.5%	28.6%	45.2%	38.7%
2026-10-20T01:02:41+00:00	62.8%	61.5%	28.6%	45.2%	38.7%
2026-10-20T01:47:52+00:00	62.0%	61.5%	28.6%	45.2%	38.7%
2026-10-20T02:33:00+00:00	62.0%	61.5%	28.6%	45.2%	38.7%
2026-10-20T03:18:08+00:00	62.0%	61.5%	28.6%	45.2%	38.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	62%	71.9°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	62%	71.8°F	4.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	71.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	45%	69.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	70.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	39%	69.1°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	29%	68.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261023-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas high ≥ 71°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗