KLAS / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST47%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

62%

62%

45%

39%

29%

Consensus

47%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 45.3¢Risks 45.30u

WN2NO 54.7¢Risks 54.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +54.70u · WN2 −54.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	80.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	82.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	88.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	84.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	33.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	47.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	31.4%	—	—	—	—	47.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	61.9%	—	17.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	18.5%	—	—	49.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	51.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	63.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	20.6%	—	55.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	—	—	—	41.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	12.4%	—	55.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	8.3%	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	61.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	17.1%	2.3%	10.5%	—	—	19.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	37.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	20.9%	46.5%	24.1%	1.5%	—	34.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	34.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	76.8%	45.6%	52.2%	—	29.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	22.7%	—	38.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	27.7%	62.7%	26.4%	67.0%	—	29.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	24.7%	—	40.7%	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	20.6%	36.7%	59.5%	54.0%	—	33.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	21.8%	—	33.4%	—	—	19.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	20.7%	11.6%	41.7%	74.9%	—	26.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	23.9%	3.1%	49.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	46.5%	54.4%	57.0%	—	22.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	24.2%	25.7%	47.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	23.7%	54.6%	70.3%	—	12.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	27.6%	41.5%	52.8%	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	25.5%	36.6%	24.7%	50.0%	11.6%	14.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	15.8%	—	21.9%	—	—	8.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	62%	71.9°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	62%	71.8°F	4.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	71.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	45%	69.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	70.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	39%	69.1°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	29%	68.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261023-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas high ≥ 71°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗