KLAS / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≤ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST6%Oct 20 · 13:10 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

33%

20%

18%

17%

11%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 21.8¢Risks 21.75u

AIFSNO 78.2¢Risks 78.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +78.25u · AIFS −78.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T07:34:00+00:00	15.8%	14.3%	22.5%	21.8%	13.9%
2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00	15.8%	14.3%	22.5%	21.8%	13.9%
2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00	15.8%	14.3%	22.5%	21.8%	13.9%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00	15.8%	14.3%	22.5%	21.8%	13.9%
2026-10-19T10:35:29+00:00	15.8%	14.3%	22.5%	21.8%	13.9%
2026-10-19T11:21:23+00:00	15.8%	12.1%	32.4%	21.8%	13.9%
2026-10-19T12:06:42+00:00	15.8%	12.1%	32.4%	21.8%	13.9%
2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00	15.8%	12.1%	32.4%	21.8%	13.9%
2026-10-19T13:37:08+00:00	14.8%	12.1%	32.4%	21.8%	13.9%
2026-10-19T14:28:07+00:00	14.7%	12.1%	32.4%	21.8%	13.8%
2026-10-19T15:14:01+00:00	14.7%	11.6%	32.4%	21.8%	13.8%
2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00	14.7%	11.6%	32.4%	21.8%	13.8%
2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:00	14.7%	11.6%	32.4%	21.8%	13.8%
2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:00	14.7%	11.6%	22.6%	21.8%	13.8%
2026-10-19T18:14:42+00:00	14.7%	11.6%	22.6%	21.8%	13.8%
2026-10-19T19:00:23+00:00	14.7%	11.6%	22.6%	21.8%	13.8%
2026-10-19T19:45:33+00:00	11.5%	11.6%	22.6%	24.8%	29.7%
2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00	11.5%	11.6%	22.6%	24.8%	29.7%
2026-10-19T21:15:56+00:00	11.5%	11.6%	22.6%	24.8%	29.7%
2026-10-19T22:01:05+00:00	11.5%	11.6%	22.6%	24.8%	29.7%
2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00	11.5%	11.6%	22.6%	24.8%	29.7%
2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00	11.5%	11.6%	30.5%	24.8%	29.7%
2026-10-20T00:17:12+00:00	11.5%	11.6%	30.5%	24.8%	29.7%
2026-10-20T01:02:41+00:00	11.5%	11.6%	30.5%	24.8%	29.7%
2026-10-20T01:47:52+00:00	11.9%	11.6%	30.5%	24.8%	29.7%
2026-10-20T02:33:00+00:00	11.9%	11.6%	30.5%	24.8%	29.7%
2026-10-20T03:18:08+00:00	11.9%	11.6%	30.5%	24.8%	29.7%
2026-10-20T04:05:57+00:00	11.9%	11.6%	30.5%	24.8%	29.7%
2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00	11.9%	11.6%	30.5%	24.8%	29.7%
2026-10-20T05:36:37+00:00	11.9%	11.6%	31.4%	24.8%	29.7%
2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00	11.9%	11.6%	31.4%	24.8%	29.7%
2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00	11.9%	11.6%	31.4%	24.8%	29.7%
2026-10-20T07:52:02+00:00	10.7%	11.6%	31.4%	24.8%	20.4%
2026-10-20T08:37:11+00:00	10.7%	11.6%	31.4%	24.8%	20.4%
2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:00	10.7%	11.6%	31.4%	24.8%	20.4%
2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00	10.7%	11.6%	31.4%	24.8%	20.4%
2026-10-20T10:54:27+00:00	10.7%	16.8%	32.8%	18.5%	20.4%
2026-10-20T11:39:49+00:00	10.7%	16.8%	32.8%	18.5%	20.4%
2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00	10.7%	16.8%	32.8%	18.5%	20.4%
2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00	10.7%	16.8%	32.8%	18.5%	20.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	33%	68.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	20%	69.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	18%	70.5°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	17%	72.2°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	11%	71.8°F	4.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	5%	73.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	72.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 66°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261023-TMAX-LE66
Opened Oct 19 · 07:34 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 66°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗