KLAS / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≤ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST6%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

33%

20%

18%

17%

11%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 21.7¢Risks 21.70u

AIFSNO 78.3¢Risks 78.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +78.30u · AIFS −78.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	38.4%	—	—	—	—	31.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	45.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	74.2%	—	—	—	—	31.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	63.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	46.6%	—	—	—	—	30.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	64.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	21.4%	—	62.1%	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	26.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	52.4%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	58.0%	—	22.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	79.4%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	69.6%	—	22.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	59.7%	—	76.9%	—	—	41.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	52.6%	—	17.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	60.7%	90.7%	71.8%	—	—	56.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	35.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	54.2%	26.9%	50.0%	92.8%	—	37.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	44.3%	—	38.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	7.1%	26.6%	21.5%	—	42.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	32.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	43.2%	13.8%	44.7%	11.4%	—	40.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	46.1%	—	29.2%	—	—	75.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	50.8%	32.3%	14.9%	18.4%	—	35.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	34.9%	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	49.2%	63.9%	26.5%	6.6%	—	41.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	44.0%	84.3%	20.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	44.8%	21.4%	16.1%	14.6%	—	45.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	42.0%	40.2%	20.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	35.6%	41.8%	14.9%	7.3%	—	58.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	36.1%	23.1%	15.4%	—	—	63.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	37.6%	26.3%	38.5%	16.5%	58.7%	52.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	41.1%	—	—	63.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	33%	68.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	20%	69.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	18%	70.5°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	17%	72.2°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	11%	71.8°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	5%	73.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	72.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 66°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261023-TMAX-LE66
Opened Oct 19 · 07:34 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 66°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗