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KLAS / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≥ 67°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST76%Oct 17 · 10:46 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
92%
WN2
84%
HRES
78%
EPS
62%
ICON
51%
Consensus
76%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 71.4¢Risks 71.35u
VS
ICONNO 28.6¢Risks 28.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +28.65u · ICON −28.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 91.5% · 2026-10-17T07:45:24+00:00AIFS Single: 91.5% · 2026-10-17T08:31:17+00:00AIFS Single: 91.5% · 2026-10-17T09:16:46+00:00AIFS Single: 91.5% · 2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00AIFS Single: 91.5% · 2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.2% · 2026-10-17T07:45:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.2% · 2026-10-17T08:31:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.2% · 2026-10-17T09:16:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.2% · 2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.2% · 2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.9% · 2026-10-17T07:45:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.9% · 2026-10-17T08:31:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.9% · 2026-10-17T09:16:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.9% · 2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.9% · 2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00IFS HRES: 77.6% · 2026-10-17T07:45:24+00:00IFS HRES: 77.6% · 2026-10-17T08:31:17+00:00IFS HRES: 77.6% · 2026-10-17T09:16:46+00:00IFS HRES: 77.6% · 2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00IFS HRES: 77.6% · 2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00ICON: 51.2% · 2026-10-17T07:45:24+00:00ICON: 51.2% · 2026-10-17T08:31:17+00:00ICON: 51.2% · 2026-10-17T09:16:46+00:00ICON: 51.2% · 2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00ICON: 51.2% · 2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:0010-17 07:4510-17 09:1610-17 10:46
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-17T07:45:24+00:0091.5%62.2%83.9%77.6%51.2%
2026-10-17T08:31:17+00:0091.5%62.2%83.9%77.6%51.2%
2026-10-17T09:16:46+00:0091.5%62.2%83.9%77.6%51.2%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:0091.5%62.2%83.9%77.6%51.2%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:0091.5%62.2%83.9%77.6%51.2%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single92%74.4°F5.8°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 284%71.9°F5.5°F2026-10-16 18:00Pending
IFS HRES78%71.4°F6.5°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble62%67.9°F4.5°F2026-10-16 00:00Pending
National Blend55%67.0°F4.4°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
ICON51%66.8°F9.9°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 67°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261024-TMAX-GE67
Opened Oct 17 · 07:45 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas high ≥ 67°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗