KLAS / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≥ 67°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST76%Oct 17 · 10:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

84%

78%

62%

51%

Consensus

76%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 71.4¢Risks 71.35u

ICONNO 28.6¢Risks 28.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +28.65u · ICON −28.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	92.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	81.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	86.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	82.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	89.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	73.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	86.8%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	83.3%	—	40.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	—	—	—	77.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	42.4%	—	—	—	—	62.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	61.8%	—	93.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	47.6%	—	—	—	—	60.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	61.6%	—	40.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	63.5%	—	—	—	—	46.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	71.3%	—	79.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	71.6%	—	48.7%	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	—	44.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	74.6%	23.3%	36.7%	—	—	70.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	71.0%	—	79.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	74.8%	93.3%	82.0%	42.3%	—	70.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	74.1%	—	88.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	81.6%	87.6%	95.9%	97.4%	—	73.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	84.0%	—	93.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	83.5%	89.7%	91.0%	94.2%	—	58.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	96.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	85.1%	87.7%	94.7%	77.0%	—	55.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	87.0%	—	94.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	88.4%	82.2%	91.6%	87.1%	—	49.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	85.3%	64.2%	97.7%	—	—	1.4%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	90.3%	92.0%	96.2%	85.4%	72.4%	57.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	93.7%	—	—	52.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	92%	74.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	84%	71.9°F	5.5°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	78%	71.4°F	6.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	62%	67.9°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	67.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	51%	66.8°F	9.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 67°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261024-TMAX-GE67
Opened Oct 17 · 07:45 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas high ≥ 67°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗