KLAS / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST80%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

89%

87%

76%

72%

Consensus

80%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 80.8¢Risks 40.40u

WN2NO 19.2¢Risks 9.60u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +9.60u · WN2 −9.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T11:32:18+00:00	88.5%	71.7%	78.9%	72.7%	47.2%
2026-10-17T12:17:30+00:00	88.5%	71.7%	78.9%	72.7%	47.2%
2026-10-17T13:02:38+00:00	88.5%	71.7%	78.9%	72.7%	47.2%
2026-10-17T13:47:58+00:00	86.0%	71.7%	78.9%	72.7%	47.2%
2026-10-17T14:39:20+00:00	86.0%	71.7%	78.9%	72.7%	47.6%
2026-10-17T15:25:23+00:00	86.0%	75.9%	78.9%	72.7%	47.6%
2026-10-17T16:10:35+00:00	86.0%	75.9%	78.9%	72.7%	47.6%
2026-10-17T16:55:44+00:00	86.0%	75.9%	73.4%	72.7%	47.6%
2026-10-17T17:40:52+00:00	86.0%	75.9%	73.4%	72.7%	47.6%
2026-10-17T18:25:59+00:00	86.0%	75.9%	73.4%	72.7%	47.6%
2026-10-17T19:11:07+00:00	86.0%	75.9%	73.4%	72.7%	47.6%
2026-10-17T19:56:21+00:00	88.2%	75.9%	73.4%	90.1%	89.0%
2026-10-17T20:41:33+00:00	88.2%	75.9%	73.4%	90.1%	89.0%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	88.2%	75.9%	73.4%	90.1%	89.0%
2026-10-17T22:11:57+00:00	88.2%	75.9%	73.4%	90.1%	89.0%
2026-10-17T22:57:07+00:00	88.2%	75.9%	71.5%	90.1%	89.0%
2026-10-17T23:42:15+00:00	88.2%	75.9%	71.5%	90.1%	89.0%
2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00	88.2%	75.9%	71.5%	90.1%	89.0%
2026-10-18T01:12:58+00:00	88.2%	75.9%	71.5%	90.1%	89.0%
2026-10-18T01:58:16+00:00	87.4%	75.9%	71.5%	90.1%	89.0%
2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00	87.4%	75.9%	71.5%	90.1%	89.0%
2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00	87.4%	75.9%	71.5%	90.1%	89.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	90%	75.8°F	6.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	89%	79.7°F	9.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	87%	74.1°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	76%	70.8°F	4.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	72%	70.4°F	5.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	68.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261024-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 17 · 11:32 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas high ≥ 68°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗