KLAS / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST80%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

89%

87%

76%

72%

Consensus

80%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 80.8¢Risks 40.40u

WN2NO 19.2¢Risks 9.60u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +9.60u · WN2 −9.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	90.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	77.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	82.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	78.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	67.1%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	77.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	83.6%	—	—	—	—	63.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	34.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	44.9%	—	—	—	—	73.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	36.8%	—	—	—	—	57.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	55.9%	—	91.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	41.6%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	55.5%	—	34.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	57.5%	—	—	—	—	40.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	65.6%	—	75.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	65.8%	—	42.2%	—	—	60.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	69.1%	—	37.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	68.8%	18.4%	30.6%	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	64.8%	—	74.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	68.9%	90.7%	77.0%	35.6%	—	64.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	84.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	76.3%	83.5%	94.1%	96.1%	—	67.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	79.0%	—	90.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	78.4%	85.8%	87.5%	91.6%	—	50.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	78.9%	—	94.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	80.0%	83.2%	92.2%	70.5%	—	47.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	92.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	83.8%	76.2%	88.0%	82.2%	—	40.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	79.9%	56.0%	96.2%	—	—	0.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	85.9%	88.2%	94.1%	79.8%	64.6%	48.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	83.9%	—	90.4%	—	—	43.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	90%	75.8°F	6.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	89%	79.7°F	9.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	87%	74.1°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	76%	70.8°F	4.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	72%	70.4°F	5.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	68.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261024-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 17 · 11:32 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas high ≥ 68°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗