KLAS / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST72%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

88%

75%

68%

59%

Consensus

72%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 74.8¢Risks 74.75u

HRESNO 25.2¢Risks 25.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +25.25u · HRES −25.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:08+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T04:15:03+00:00	83.5%	68.8%	64.5%	87.1%	87.0%
2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00	83.5%	68.8%	66.7%	87.1%	87.0%
2026-10-18T05:45:23+00:00	83.5%	68.8%	66.7%	87.1%	87.0%
2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00	83.5%	68.8%	66.7%	87.1%	87.0%
2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00	83.5%	68.8%	66.7%	87.1%	87.0%
2026-10-18T08:02:00+00:00	89.6%	68.8%	66.7%	74.8%	86.8%
2026-10-18T08:47:14+00:00	89.6%	68.8%	66.7%	74.8%	86.8%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00	89.6%	68.8%	66.7%	74.8%	86.8%
2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00	89.6%	68.8%	66.7%	74.8%	86.8%
2026-10-18T11:03:03+00:00	89.6%	75.6%	71.8%	74.8%	86.8%
2026-10-18T11:48:20+00:00	89.6%	75.6%	71.8%	74.8%	86.8%
2026-10-18T12:33:58+00:00	89.6%	75.6%	71.8%	74.8%	86.8%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00	89.6%	75.6%	71.8%	74.8%	86.8%
2026-10-18T14:04:16+00:00	91.1%	75.3%	71.8%	74.8%	86.8%
2026-10-18T14:56:15+00:00	91.1%	75.3%	71.8%	74.8%	86.8%
2026-10-18T15:41:41+00:00	91.1%	74.9%	71.8%	74.8%	86.8%
2026-10-18T16:27:01+00:00	91.1%	74.9%	71.8%	74.8%	86.8%
2026-10-18T17:12:11+00:00	91.1%	74.9%	61.8%	74.8%	86.8%
2026-10-18T17:57:40+00:00	91.1%	74.9%	61.8%	74.8%	86.8%
2026-10-18T18:42:50+00:00	91.1%	74.9%	61.8%	74.8%	86.8%
2026-10-18T19:28:02+00:00	90.8%	74.9%	61.8%	59.0%	87.7%
2026-10-18T20:13:11+00:00	90.8%	74.9%	61.8%	59.0%	87.7%
2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00	90.8%	74.9%	61.8%	59.0%	87.7%
2026-10-18T21:43:28+00:00	90.8%	74.9%	61.8%	59.0%	87.7%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00	90.8%	74.9%	61.8%	59.0%	87.7%
2026-10-18T23:13:47+00:00	90.8%	74.9%	68.1%	59.0%	87.7%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00	90.8%	74.9%	68.1%	59.0%	87.7%
2026-10-19T00:44:12+00:00	90.8%	74.9%	68.1%	59.0%	87.7%
2026-10-19T01:29:39+00:00	90.5%	74.9%	68.1%	59.0%	87.7%
2026-10-19T02:14:49+00:00	90.5%	74.9%	68.1%	59.0%	87.7%
2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00	90.5%	74.9%	68.1%	59.0%	87.7%
2026-10-19T03:45:08+00:00	90.5%	74.9%	68.1%	59.0%	87.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	90%	75.6°F	5.4°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
ICON	88%	76.8°F	7.2°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	75%	71.3°F	4.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	68%	70.7°F	4.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	59%	70.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	69.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	69.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261024-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 18 · 04:15 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas high ≥ 69°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗