KLAS / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST72%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

88%

75%

68%

59%

Consensus

72%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 74.8¢Risks 74.75u

HRESNO 25.2¢Risks 25.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +25.25u · HRES −25.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	87.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	81.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	73.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	79.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	58.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	73.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	57.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	75.4%	—	29.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	39.3%	—	—	—	—	68.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	31.4%	—	—	—	—	51.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	88.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	35.8%	—	—	—	—	48.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	29.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	51.3%	—	—	—	—	34.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	69.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	59.7%	—	36.0%	—	—	54.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	63.0%	—	31.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	62.6%	14.3%	24.9%	—	—	58.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	68.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	62.4%	87.4%	71.4%	29.2%	—	57.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	61.3%	—	79.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	70.3%	78.5%	91.6%	94.3%	—	60.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	73.2%	—	86.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	72.4%	81.1%	83.1%	88.2%	—	43.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	72.8%	—	91.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	73.9%	77.6%	88.9%	63.3%	—	39.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	76.3%	—	88.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	78.1%	69.2%	83.2%	76.2%	—	33.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	73.3%	47.4%	94.1%	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	80.4%	83.3%	91.0%	73.1%	56.1%	39.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	77.8%	—	86.0%	—	—	35.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	90%	75.6°F	5.4°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
ICON	88%	76.8°F	7.2°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	75%	71.3°F	4.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	68%	70.7°F	4.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	59%	70.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	69.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	69.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261024-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 18 · 04:15 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas high ≥ 69°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗