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KLAS / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≤ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 20 · 13:10 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
18%
HRES
10%
WN2
8%
ICON
5%
AIFS
2%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 9.8¢Risks 4.88u
VS
AIFSNO 90.2¢Risks 45.12u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +45.12u · AIFS −45.12u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 1.5% · 2026-10-20T10:54:27+00:00AIFS Single: 1.5% · 2026-10-20T11:39:49+00:00AIFS Single: 1.5% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00AIFS Single: 1.5% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 18.0% · 2026-10-20T10:54:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 18.0% · 2026-10-20T11:39:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 18.0% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 18.0% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.5% · 2026-10-20T10:54:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.5% · 2026-10-20T11:39:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.5% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.5% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00IFS HRES: 9.7% · 2026-10-20T10:54:27+00:00IFS HRES: 9.7% · 2026-10-20T11:39:49+00:00IFS HRES: 9.7% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00IFS HRES: 9.7% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00ICON: 4.8% · 2026-10-20T10:54:27+00:00ICON: 4.8% · 2026-10-20T11:39:49+00:00ICON: 4.8% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00ICON: 4.8% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:0010-20 10:5410-20 12:2410-20 13:10
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T10:54:27+00:001.5%18.0%8.5%9.7%4.8%
2026-10-20T11:39:49+00:001.5%18.0%8.5%9.7%4.8%
2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:001.5%18.0%8.5%9.7%4.8%
2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:001.5%18.0%8.5%9.7%4.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble18%70.3°F4.2°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
NWS forecast16%71.0°F4.5°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending
IFS HRES10%73.0°F5.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 28%71.6°F3.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON5%74.6°F4.9°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single2%76.4°F4.6°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend<1%72.0°F2.2°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 66°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261024-TMAX-LE66
Opened Oct 20 · 10:54 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 66°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗