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KLAS / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≤ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
18%
HRES
10%
WN2
8%
ICON
5%
AIFS
2%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 9.7¢Risks 4.85u
VS
AIFSNO 90.3¢Risks 45.15u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +45.15u · AIFS −45.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 92.7% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.4% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 62.5% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.0% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 21.6% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 31.6% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 36.4% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 30.1% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 25.2% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.8% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 53.7% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 48.9% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 27.9% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 34.0% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 47.3% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 45.8% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 28.3% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.5% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.2% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.7% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 49.4% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 51.1% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 57.6% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 38.2% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 52.4% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 38.4% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 36.4% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 28.7% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 28.4% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 25.3% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 25.4% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 29.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 25.2% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 25.9% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.4% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.4% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.9% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.9% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.6% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.7% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.7% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.2% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 76.7% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 6.7% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 12.4% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 10.3% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 12.3% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 17.8% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 35.8% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 8.0% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 60.0% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.7% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 59.2% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 20.2% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 51.3% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 56.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 63.3% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 20.3% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 18.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 11.8% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.1% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.9% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 9.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.8% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.3% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.3% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.3% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.3% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.8% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.3% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 57.7% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.6% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 5.8% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 23.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 12.9% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 14.6% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 27.7% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 63.1% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.7% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 18.9% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.0% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 17.5% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 26.1% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 33.0% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 35.9% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 32.0% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 31.9% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 22.5% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 37.3% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 39.8% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 53.8% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 33.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 29.4% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 29.2% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 26.6% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 41.7% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 44.4% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 50.8% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 98.6% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 43.0% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 47.3% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:0010-09 12:0010-15 00:0010-20 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:0092.7%————63.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:0024.4%—————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:0062.5%————7.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:0012.0%—————
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:0021.6%————18.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:0031.6%—————
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:0036.4%————14.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:0030.1%—————
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:0025.2%————17.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:0010.8%—————
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:0053.7%————26.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:0048.9%—————
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:0027.9%————33.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:0034.0%—————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:0047.3%————35.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0045.8%—————
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:0028.3%————32.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:0018.5%—————
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:0013.2%————31.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:0016.7%—60.0%———
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:0049.4%————22.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:0051.1%—————
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:0057.6%————37.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:0038.2%—6.7%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:0052.4%————39.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:0038.4%—59.2%———
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:0036.4%————53.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:0028.7%—20.2%———
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:0028.4%—51.3%——33.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:0025.3%—56.0%———
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:0025.4%76.7%63.3%——29.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:0029.0%—20.3%———
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:0025.2%6.7%18.0%57.7%—29.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:0025.9%—11.8%———
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:0018.4%12.4%4.1%2.6%—26.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:0016.0%—6.9%———
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:0016.4%10.3%9.0%5.8%—41.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:0015.9%—3.8%———
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:0014.9%12.3%5.3%23.0%—44.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:0013.0%—5.3%———
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:0011.6%17.8%8.3%12.9%—50.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:0014.7%35.8%2.3%——98.6%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:009.7%8.0%3.8%14.6%27.7%43.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:0011.2%—6.3%——47.3%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble18%70.3°F4.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
NWS forecast16%71.0°F4.5°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending
IFS HRES10%73.0°F5.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 28%71.6°F3.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON5%74.6°F4.9°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single2%76.4°F4.6°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend<1%72.0°F2.2°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 66°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261024-TMAX-LE66
Opened Oct 20 · 10:54 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 66°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗