KLAS / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≥ 70°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST76%Oct 18 · 10:17 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

80%

76%

74%

35%

Consensus

76%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 64.3¢Risks 64.35u

ICONNO 35.7¢Risks 35.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +35.65u · ICON −35.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	72.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	81.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	45.7%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	47.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	40.6%	—	38.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	38.8%	—	—	—	—	44.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	32.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	42.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	42.3%	—	50.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	46.4%	—	21.4%	—	—	56.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	56.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	67.6%	—	—	—	—	60.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	66.7%	—	85.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	71.1%	—	71.6%	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	72.5%	—	69.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	80.2%	7.2%	90.7%	—	—	73.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	91.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	80.1%	82.5%	83.4%	14.5%	—	67.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	69.3%	—	87.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	79.0%	78.5%	86.9%	67.0%	—	57.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	87.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	77.2%	85.8%	66.3%	98.0%	—	52.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	71.5%	—	93.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	82.1%	80.5%	81.6%	70.5%	53.2%	53.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	79.9%	—	72.4%	—	—	45.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	94%	78.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	80%	75.0°F	6.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	76%	72.7°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	74%	73.1°F	5.5°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	70.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	35%	65.6°F	9.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 70°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261025-TMAX-GE70
Opened Oct 18 · 08:02 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas high ≥ 70°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗