KLAS / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Las Vegas, NVHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST73%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

85%

77%

70%

53%

Consensus

73%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 70.9¢Risks 70.85u

EPSNO 29.1¢Risks 29.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +29.15u · EPS −29.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	—	—	—	32.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	—	—	—	—	29.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	44.9%	—	—	—	—	36.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	32.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	64.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	38.0%	—	—	39.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	38.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	57.5%	—	74.1%	—	—	46.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	69.6%	—	90.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	68.8%	—	19.3%	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	63.7%	—	77.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	2.4%	73.5%	—	—	53.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	71.6%	—	71.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	70.8%	80.6%	54.2%	9.6%	—	54.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	65.4%	—	75.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	68.3%	75.7%	72.8%	67.7%	37.8%	52.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	70.0%	—	78.4%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	89%	79.1°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	85%	79.9°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	77%	77.3°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	70%	75.0°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	63%	74.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	73.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	53%	72.8°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KLAS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAS-20261026-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 19 · 11:21 UTC

Original listing: Las Vegas high ≥ 73°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗