KLAX / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Los Angeles, CAHigh ≥ 93°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

48%

22%

22%

21%

Consensus

18%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 26.2¢Risks 26.20u

EPSNO 73.8¢Risks 73.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +73.80u · EPS −73.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T03:55:43+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T04:25:08+00:00	66.2%	2.5%	22.9%	21.8%	16.8%
2026-10-16T05:10:34+00:00	66.2%	2.5%	24.9%	21.8%	16.8%
2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00	66.2%	2.5%	24.9%	21.8%	16.8%
2026-10-16T06:41:09+00:00	66.2%	2.5%	24.9%	21.8%	16.8%
2026-10-16T07:26:19+00:00	66.2%	2.5%	24.9%	21.8%	16.8%
2026-10-16T08:11:30+00:00	68.4%	2.5%	24.9%	21.8%	16.0%
2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00	68.4%	2.5%	24.9%	21.8%	16.0%
2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00	68.4%	2.5%	24.9%	21.8%	16.0%
2026-10-16T10:26:59+00:00	68.4%	2.5%	24.9%	21.8%	16.0%
2026-10-16T11:12:27+00:00	68.4%	3.5%	15.9%	21.8%	16.0%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00	68.4%	3.5%	15.9%	21.8%	16.0%
2026-10-16T12:42:52+00:00	68.4%	3.5%	15.9%	21.8%	16.0%
2026-10-16T13:29:03+00:00	68.4%	3.5%	15.9%	21.8%	16.0%
2026-10-16T14:19:59+00:00	63.8%	3.6%	15.9%	27.7%	16.1%
2026-10-16T15:05:50+00:00	63.8%	4.8%	15.9%	27.7%	16.1%
2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00	63.8%	4.8%	15.9%	27.7%	16.1%
2026-10-16T16:36:15+00:00	63.8%	4.8%	15.9%	27.7%	16.1%
2026-10-16T17:21:32+00:00	63.8%	4.8%	15.9%	27.7%	16.1%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00	63.8%	4.8%	15.9%	27.7%	16.1%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00	63.8%	4.8%	15.9%	27.7%	16.1%
2026-10-16T19:37:17+00:00	56.0%	4.8%	15.9%	27.7%	20.6%
2026-10-16T20:22:43+00:00	56.0%	4.8%	15.9%	27.7%	20.6%
2026-10-16T21:07:49+00:00	56.0%	4.8%	15.9%	27.7%	20.6%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	56.0%	4.8%	15.9%	27.7%	20.6%
2026-10-16T22:38:11+00:00	56.0%	4.8%	15.9%	21.8%	20.6%
2026-10-16T23:23:40+00:00	56.0%	4.4%	21.5%	21.8%	20.6%
2026-10-17T00:09:45+00:00	56.0%	4.4%	21.5%	21.8%	20.6%
2026-10-17T00:55:01+00:00	56.0%	4.4%	21.5%	21.8%	20.6%
2026-10-17T01:40:14+00:00	48.0%	4.4%	21.5%	21.8%	20.6%
2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:00	48.0%	4.4%	21.5%	21.8%	20.6%
2026-10-17T03:10:31+00:00	48.0%	4.4%	21.5%	21.8%	20.6%
2026-10-17T03:55:43+00:00	48.0%	4.4%	21.5%	21.8%	20.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	56%	93.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 14:00	0.3181
AIFS Single	48%	92.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.2304
IFS HRES	22%	89.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0475
WeatherNext 2	22%	90.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0462
ICON	21%	89.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0424
National Blend	9%	88.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.0076
IFS Ensemble	4%	85.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0019

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 93°F · KLAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAX-20261017-TMAX-GE93
Opened Oct 16 · 04:25 UTC

Original listing: Los Angeles high ≥ 93°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗