KLAX / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Los Angeles, CAHigh ≥ 93°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

48%

22%

22%

21%

Consensus

18%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 26.2¢Risks 26.20u

EPSNO 73.8¢Risks 73.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +73.80u · EPS −73.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	27.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	37.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	0.7%	—	—	38.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	4.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	5.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	41.9%	—	50.6%	—	—	64.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	19.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	61.6%	—	53.9%	—	—	51.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	59.9%	—	3.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	51.3%	—	—	48.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	55.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	39.6%	81.1%	55.6%	1.8%	—	47.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	50.7%	—	41.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	39.2%	—	50.7%	1.4%	—	53.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	25.6%	—	36.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	14.6%	20.0%	35.8%	15.5%	—	56.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	23.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	15.4%	28.1%	18.9%	24.8%	—	54.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	21.8%	—	16.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	42.5%	32.2%	13.4%	20.7%	—	61.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	32.6%	4.9%	21.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	13.6%	40.5%	18.4%	13.6%	—	56.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	44.6%	13.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	10.6%	50.0%	15.4%	28.9%	—	54.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	23.1%	38.8%	16.5%	—	—	65.7%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	24.7%	47.1%	14.7%	36.6%	—	62.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	29.1%	48.0%	10.5%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	30.3%	52.1%	13.4%	39.8%	—	63.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	26.2%	57.4%	12.7%	—	—	63.5%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	67.9%	10.4%	52.2%	0.0%	68.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	29.6%	59.0%	14.8%	1.5%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	26.0%	18.3%	16.0%	23.3%	—	74.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	26.3%	59.5%	11.9%	27.3%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	27.6%	24.6%	4.3%	16.6%	15.1%	65.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	20.9%	20.9%	6.8%	23.8%	—	65.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	29.5%	4.0%	10.1%	8.9%	56.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	7.1%	35.0%	1.7%	10.4%	—	48.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	8.3%	21.2%	2.3%	3.7%	7.8%	52.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	51.5%	2.2%	2.4%	—	33.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	4.1%	16.1%	1.2%	8.9%	6.6%	42.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	9.9%	2.3%	9.2%	—	32.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	56%	93.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 14:00	0.3181
AIFS Single	48%	92.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.2304
IFS HRES	22%	89.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0475
WeatherNext 2	22%	90.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0462
ICON	21%	89.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0424
National Blend	9%	88.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.0076
IFS Ensemble	4%	85.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0019

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 93°F · KLAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAX-20261017-TMAX-GE93
Opened Oct 16 · 04:25 UTC

Original listing: Los Angeles high ≥ 93°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗