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KLAX / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Los Angeles, CAHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST81%Oct 18 · 07:15 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
94%
ICON
90%
HRES
74%
WN2
73%
EPS
65%
Consensus
81%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 79.7¢Risks 79.65u
VS
EPSNO 20.4¢Risks 20.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +20.35u · EPS −20.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 93.9% · 2026-10-18T04:14:53+00:00AIFS Single: 93.9% · 2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00AIFS Single: 93.9% · 2026-10-18T05:45:23+00:00AIFS Single: 93.9% · 2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00AIFS Single: 93.9% · 2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.4% · 2026-10-18T04:14:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.4% · 2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.4% · 2026-10-18T05:45:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.4% · 2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.4% · 2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.5% · 2026-10-18T04:14:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 73.2% · 2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 73.2% · 2026-10-18T05:45:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 73.2% · 2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 73.2% · 2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00IFS HRES: 74.1% · 2026-10-18T04:14:53+00:00IFS HRES: 74.1% · 2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00IFS HRES: 74.1% · 2026-10-18T05:45:23+00:00IFS HRES: 74.1% · 2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00IFS HRES: 74.1% · 2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00ICON: 89.9% · 2026-10-18T04:14:53+00:00ICON: 89.9% · 2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00ICON: 89.9% · 2026-10-18T05:45:23+00:00ICON: 89.9% · 2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00ICON: 89.9% · 2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:0010-18 04:1410-18 05:4510-18 07:15
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-18T04:14:53+00:0093.9%65.4%77.5%74.1%89.9%
2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:0093.9%65.4%73.2%74.1%89.9%
2026-10-18T05:45:23+00:0093.9%65.4%73.2%74.1%89.9%
2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:0093.9%65.4%73.2%74.1%89.9%
2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:0093.9%65.4%73.2%74.1%89.9%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single94%87.6°F3.9°F2026-10-17 18:00Pending
ICON90%86.0°F3.5°F2026-10-17 12:00Pending
National Blend75%83.0°F2.2°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
IFS HRES74%83.9°F3.7°F2026-10-17 12:00Pending
WeatherNext 273%83.3°F2.9°F2026-10-17 18:00Pending
IFS Ensemble65%83.4°F4.8°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
NWS forecast59%82.0°F2.1°F2026-10-18 03:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KLAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAX-20261018-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Los Angeles high ≥ 82°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗