KLAX / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Los Angeles, CAHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST81%Oct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

90%

74%

73%

65%

Consensus

81%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 79.7¢Risks 79.65u

EPSNO 20.4¢Risks 20.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +20.35u · EPS −20.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	4.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	79.6%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	83.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	83.8%	—	—	—	—	84.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	96.2%	—	—	—	—	86.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	92.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	84.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	85.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	78.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	87.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	61.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	38.1%	—	—	—	—	89.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	46.6%	—	—	—	—	97.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	48.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	96.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	94.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	93.8%	—	63.7%	—	—	94.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	86.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	89.0%	—	94.6%	—	—	95.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	73.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	75.4%	—	91.5%	—	—	94.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	85.3%	—	89.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	82.4%	—	90.7%	—	—	96.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	87.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	72.5%	94.4%	84.7%	14.1%	—	97.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	74.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	78.0%	95.2%	70.9%	83.5%	—	97.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	84.9%	—	63.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	90.0%	95.6%	72.4%	76.6%	—	98.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	76.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	82.1%	97.0%	67.0%	72.6%	—	97.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	84.2%	—	59.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	79.3%	92.6%	69.2%	84.3%	—	97.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	81.0%	46.6%	64.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	79.2%	93.2%	64.6%	85.4%	—	97.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	81.0%	95.0%	77.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	82.2%	89.8%	57.3%	64.4%	—	98.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	80.4%	96.8%	53.8%	—	—	69.9%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	79.0%	98.6%	76.8%	95.1%	—	98.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	76.6%	97.2%	64.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	74.1%	94.2%	51.0%	87.7%	—	98.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	76.3%	96.9%	43.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	80.2%	96.2%	48.9%	90.6%	—	99.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	73.3%	95.2%	41.0%	6.3%	—	99.3%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	71.0%	95.5%	43.0%	78.5%	—	99.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	72.7%	96.3%	53.6%	42.8%	—	99.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	70.2%	98.0%	72.4%	38.9%	79.2%	98.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	73.1%	97.2%	68.7%	48.7%	—	99.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	83.5%	97.4%	71.6%	69.3%	95.0%	99.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	78.9%	96.5%	58.3%	75.8%	—	99.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	81.8%	97.3%	70.7%	57.2%	91.6%	99.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	75.2%	99.1%	67.5%	63.3%	—	99.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	76.2%	99.0%	65.4%	50.0%	93.4%	99.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	71.9%	99.5%	69.0%	66.1%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	94%	87.6°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
ICON	90%	86.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	75%	83.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	74%	83.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	73%	83.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	65%	83.4°F	4.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	82.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KLAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAX-20261018-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Los Angeles high ≥ 82°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗