KLAX / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Los Angeles, CAHigh ≥ 88°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST39%Oct 12 · 03:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

78%

59%

39%

31%

15%

Consensus

39%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 46.2¢Risks 46.25u

EPSNO 53.8¢Risks 53.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +53.75u · EPS −53.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-12T03:15:39+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T07:32:45+00:00	72.3%	21.7%	38.1%	26.9%	—
2026-10-11T08:18:05+00:00	72.3%	21.7%	38.1%	26.9%	—
2026-10-11T09:03:13+00:00	72.3%	21.7%	38.1%	26.9%	—
2026-10-11T09:48:18+00:00	72.3%	21.7%	38.1%	26.9%	—
2026-10-11T10:34:23+00:00	72.3%	21.7%	38.1%	26.9%	—
2026-10-11T11:20:17+00:00	72.3%	15.3%	51.6%	26.9%	—
2026-10-11T12:05:24+00:00	72.3%	15.3%	51.6%	26.9%	—
2026-10-11T12:50:30+00:00	72.3%	15.3%	51.6%	26.9%	—
2026-10-11T13:35:57+00:00	70.5%	15.3%	51.6%	26.9%	—
2026-10-11T14:26:16+00:00	70.4%	15.3%	51.6%	26.9%	—
2026-10-11T15:12:15+00:00	70.4%	14.8%	51.6%	26.9%	—
2026-10-11T15:57:21+00:00	70.4%	14.8%	51.6%	26.9%	—
2026-10-11T16:42:28+00:00	70.4%	14.8%	51.6%	26.9%	—
2026-10-11T17:28:04+00:00	70.4%	14.8%	55.6%	26.9%	—
2026-10-11T18:13:14+00:00	70.4%	14.8%	55.6%	26.9%	—
2026-10-11T18:58:21+00:00	70.4%	14.8%	55.6%	26.9%	—
2026-10-11T19:43:35+00:00	59.2%	14.8%	55.6%	39.4%	77.7%
2026-10-11T20:28:42+00:00	59.2%	14.8%	55.6%	39.4%	77.7%
2026-10-11T21:13:55+00:00	59.2%	14.8%	55.6%	39.4%	77.7%
2026-10-11T21:59:03+00:00	59.2%	14.8%	55.6%	39.4%	77.7%
2026-10-11T22:44:17+00:00	59.2%	14.8%	55.6%	39.4%	77.7%
2026-10-11T23:29:38+00:00	59.2%	14.8%	30.7%	39.4%	77.7%
2026-10-12T00:14:48+00:00	59.2%	14.8%	30.7%	39.4%	77.7%
2026-10-12T01:00:16+00:00	59.2%	14.8%	30.7%	39.4%	77.7%
2026-10-12T01:45:25+00:00	59.2%	14.8%	30.7%	39.4%	77.7%
2026-10-12T02:30:32+00:00	59.2%	14.8%	30.7%	39.4%	77.7%
2026-10-12T03:15:39+00:00	59.2%	14.8%	30.7%	39.4%	77.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	78%	95.0°F	9.9°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	59%	88.8°F	5.6°F	2026-10-11 18:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	88.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-11 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	39%	85.8°F	6.3°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	31%	85.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	15%	82.8°F	4.5°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 88°F · KLAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAX-20261018-TMAX-GE88
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Los Angeles high ≥ 88°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗