KLAX / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Los Angeles, CAHigh ≥ 88°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST39%Oct 12 · 03:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

78%

59%

39%

31%

15%

Consensus

39%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 46.2¢Risks 46.25u

EPSNO 53.8¢Risks 53.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +53.75u · EPS −53.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	19.2%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	30.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	12.9%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	—	—	—	86.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	—	—	—	81.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	74.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	73.4%	—	28.7%	—	—	76.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	56.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	61.2%	—	74.6%	—	—	76.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	62.0%	—	37.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	38.4%	—	65.2%	—	—	74.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	52.0%	—	60.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	46.6%	—	62.0%	—	—	78.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	44.5%	—	54.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	32.3%	70.2%	48.6%	1.7%	—	79.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	34.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	37.1%	71.5%	29.1%	44.9%	—	79.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	22.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	55.3%	71.1%	28.9%	33.7%	—	82.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	39.0%	75.2%	22.4%	27.4%	—	80.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	16.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	57.5%	22.5%	40.1%	—	78.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	34.2%	8.5%	17.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	30.7%	57.0%	17.2%	39.6%	—	75.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	31.8%	61.5%	27.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	32.2%	45.4%	11.5%	15.4%	—	80.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	28.4%	66.5%	9.2%	—	—	18.4%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	25.5%	76.8%	23.2%	57.7%	—	77.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	21.9%	65.6%	13.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	18.3%	51.0%	6.4%	34.9%	—	74.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	19.0%	60.5%	4.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	21.3%	55.5%	4.7%	37.1%	—	83.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	14.1%	48.9%	2.7%	0.1%	—	77.7%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	11.6%	47.7%	2.7%	16.8%	—	78.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	11.4%	48.8%	4.3%	2.3%	—	76.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	8.9%	57.4%	10.0%	1.6%	14.4%	64.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	48.7%	7.2%	2.4%	—	69.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	47.3%	7.4%	6.5%	35.6%	77.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	39.0%	3.0%	8.1%	—	67.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	10.2%	40.0%	5.1%	2.3%	21.2%	62.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	53.0%	3.4%	2.7%	—	67.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	48.4%	2.4%	0.9%	19.2%	66.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	53.3%	2.3%	1.9%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	78%	95.0°F	9.9°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	59%	88.8°F	5.6°F	2026-10-11 18:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	88.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-11 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	39%	85.8°F	6.3°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	31%	85.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-11 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	15%	82.8°F	4.5°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 88°F · KLAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAX-20261018-TMAX-GE88
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Los Angeles high ≥ 88°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗