KLAX / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Los Angeles, CAHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST66%Oct 16 · 14:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

72%

67%

58%

57%

Consensus

66%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 75.1¢Risks 75.10u

HRESNO 24.9¢Risks 24.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +24.90u · HRES −24.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T14:19:59+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T11:35:42+00:00	69.2%	74.8%	48.4%	40.6%	30.6%
2026-10-12T12:20:51+00:00	69.2%	74.0%	48.4%	40.6%	30.6%
2026-10-12T13:05:59+00:00	69.2%	74.0%	48.4%	40.6%	30.6%
2026-10-12T13:51:11+00:00	74.0%	74.0%	48.4%	40.6%	30.6%
2026-10-12T14:41:20+00:00	73.9%	74.0%	48.4%	40.6%	30.7%
2026-10-12T15:27:49+00:00	73.9%	74.0%	48.4%	40.6%	30.7%
2026-10-12T16:12:59+00:00	73.9%	73.2%	48.4%	40.6%	30.7%
2026-10-12T16:58:08+00:00	73.9%	73.2%	48.4%	40.6%	30.7%
2026-10-12T17:43:16+00:00	73.9%	73.2%	56.4%	40.6%	30.7%
2026-10-12T18:28:22+00:00	73.9%	73.2%	56.4%	40.6%	30.7%
2026-10-12T19:13:29+00:00	73.9%	73.2%	56.4%	40.6%	30.7%
2026-10-12T19:58:38+00:00	67.2%	73.2%	56.4%	74.6%	91.0%
2026-10-12T20:43:45+00:00	67.2%	73.2%	56.4%	74.6%	91.0%
2026-10-12T21:28:52+00:00	67.2%	73.2%	56.4%	74.6%	91.0%
2026-10-12T22:13:59+00:00	67.2%	73.2%	56.4%	74.6%	91.0%
2026-10-12T22:59:14+00:00	67.2%	73.2%	61.9%	74.6%	91.0%
2026-10-12T23:44:21+00:00	67.2%	73.2%	61.9%	74.6%	91.0%
2026-10-13T00:29:27+00:00	67.2%	73.2%	61.9%	74.6%	91.0%
2026-10-13T01:14:42+00:00	67.2%	73.2%	61.9%	74.6%	91.0%
2026-10-13T01:59:50+00:00	69.7%	73.2%	61.9%	74.6%	91.0%
2026-10-13T02:44:58+00:00	69.7%	73.2%	61.9%	74.6%	91.0%
2026-10-13T03:30:05+00:00	69.7%	73.2%	61.9%	74.6%	91.0%
2026-10-13T15:41:57+00:00	68.1%	71.2%	63.7%	33.5%	90.2%
2026-10-13T16:27:06+00:00	68.1%	71.2%	63.7%	33.5%	90.2%
2026-10-13T17:12:14+00:00	68.1%	71.2%	56.1%	33.5%	90.2%
2026-10-13T17:57:20+00:00	68.1%	71.2%	56.1%	33.5%	90.2%
2026-10-13T18:42:25+00:00	68.1%	71.2%	56.1%	33.5%	90.2%
2026-10-13T19:27:31+00:00	68.1%	71.2%	56.1%	33.5%	90.2%
2026-10-13T20:12:39+00:00	59.7%	71.2%	56.1%	33.5%	91.6%
2026-10-13T20:57:46+00:00	59.7%	71.2%	56.1%	33.5%	91.6%
2026-10-13T21:43:20+00:00	59.7%	71.2%	56.1%	33.5%	91.6%
2026-10-13T22:28:27+00:00	59.7%	71.2%	56.1%	33.5%	91.6%
2026-10-13T23:13:40+00:00	59.7%	71.2%	50.0%	30.7%	91.6%
2026-10-13T23:58:48+00:00	59.7%	71.2%	50.0%	30.7%	91.6%
2026-10-14T00:43:56+00:00	59.7%	71.2%	50.0%	30.7%	91.6%
2026-10-14T01:29:15+00:00	63.3%	71.2%	50.0%	30.7%	91.6%
2026-10-14T02:14:22+00:00	63.3%	71.2%	50.0%	30.7%	91.6%
2026-10-14T15:12:47+00:00	78.4%	66.4%	57.7%	35.1%	83.6%
2026-10-14T15:57:59+00:00	78.4%	66.4%	57.7%	35.1%	83.6%
2026-10-14T16:43:07+00:00	78.4%	66.4%	57.7%	35.1%	83.6%
2026-10-14T17:28:17+00:00	78.4%	66.4%	61.5%	35.1%	83.6%
2026-10-14T18:13:22+00:00	78.4%	66.4%	61.5%	35.1%	83.6%
2026-10-14T18:58:30+00:00	78.4%	66.4%	61.5%	35.1%	83.6%
2026-10-14T19:43:41+00:00	80.1%	66.4%	61.5%	54.1%	88.7%
2026-10-14T20:28:53+00:00	80.1%	66.4%	61.5%	54.1%	88.7%
2026-10-14T21:13:59+00:00	80.1%	66.4%	61.5%	54.1%	88.7%
2026-10-14T21:59:06+00:00	80.1%	66.4%	61.5%	54.1%	88.7%
2026-10-14T22:44:12+00:00	80.1%	66.4%	61.5%	54.1%	88.7%
2026-10-14T23:29:35+00:00	80.1%	66.4%	53.9%	54.1%	88.7%
2026-10-15T00:15:28+00:00	80.1%	66.4%	53.9%	54.1%	88.7%
2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00	80.1%	66.4%	53.9%	54.1%	88.7%
2026-10-15T01:46:23+00:00	79.0%	66.4%	53.9%	54.1%	88.7%
2026-10-15T02:31:32+00:00	79.0%	66.4%	53.9%	54.1%	88.7%
2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00	79.0%	66.4%	53.9%	54.1%	88.7%
2026-10-15T04:02:41+00:00	79.0%	66.4%	53.9%	54.1%	88.7%
2026-10-15T04:48:12+00:00	79.0%	66.4%	53.9%	54.1%	88.7%
2026-10-15T05:33:24+00:00	79.0%	66.4%	58.7%	54.1%	88.7%
2026-10-15T06:18:31+00:00	79.0%	66.4%	58.7%	54.1%	88.7%
2026-10-15T07:03:40+00:00	79.0%	66.4%	58.7%	54.1%	88.7%
2026-10-15T07:50:37+00:00	69.1%	66.4%	58.7%	50.0%	94.7%
2026-10-15T08:35:53+00:00	69.1%	66.4%	58.7%	50.0%	94.7%
2026-10-15T09:21:48+00:00	69.1%	66.4%	58.7%	50.0%	94.7%
2026-10-15T10:07:44+00:00	69.1%	66.4%	58.7%	50.0%	94.7%
2026-10-15T10:53:49+00:00	69.1%	66.4%	58.7%	50.0%	94.7%
2026-10-15T11:39:42+00:00	69.1%	66.4%	58.5%	50.0%	94.7%
2026-10-15T12:24:58+00:00	69.1%	66.5%	58.5%	50.0%	94.7%
2026-10-15T13:10:40+00:00	69.1%	66.5%	58.5%	50.0%	94.7%
2026-10-15T13:55:56+00:00	75.0%	66.5%	58.5%	50.0%	94.7%
2026-10-15T14:48:28+00:00	75.0%	66.5%	58.5%	50.0%	94.6%
2026-10-15T15:34:44+00:00	75.0%	68.1%	58.5%	50.0%	94.6%
2026-10-15T16:20:17+00:00	75.0%	68.1%	58.5%	50.0%	94.6%
2026-10-15T17:05:26+00:00	75.0%	68.1%	54.3%	50.0%	94.6%
2026-10-15T17:50:49+00:00	75.0%	68.1%	54.3%	50.0%	94.6%
2026-10-15T18:36:03+00:00	75.0%	68.1%	54.3%	50.0%	94.6%
2026-10-15T19:21:11+00:00	75.0%	68.1%	54.3%	50.0%	94.6%
2026-10-15T20:06:23+00:00	78.4%	68.1%	54.3%	43.6%	89.2%
2026-10-15T20:51:37+00:00	78.4%	68.1%	54.3%	43.6%	89.2%
2026-10-15T21:36:46+00:00	78.4%	68.1%	54.3%	43.6%	89.2%
2026-10-15T22:21:55+00:00	78.4%	68.1%	54.3%	43.6%	89.2%
2026-10-15T23:07:06+00:00	78.4%	68.1%	47.9%	43.6%	89.2%
2026-10-15T23:52:19+00:00	78.4%	68.1%	47.9%	43.6%	89.2%
2026-10-16T00:37:28+00:00	78.4%	68.1%	47.9%	43.6%	89.2%
2026-10-16T01:22:54+00:00	72.9%	68.1%	47.9%	43.6%	89.2%
2026-10-16T02:08:22+00:00	72.9%	68.1%	47.9%	43.6%	89.2%
2026-10-16T02:53:36+00:00	72.9%	68.1%	47.9%	43.6%	89.2%
2026-10-16T03:38:46+00:00	72.9%	68.1%	47.9%	43.6%	89.2%
2026-10-16T04:25:09+00:00	72.9%	68.1%	47.9%	43.6%	89.2%
2026-10-16T05:10:34+00:00	72.9%	68.1%	47.9%	43.6%	89.2%
2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00	72.9%	68.1%	47.9%	43.6%	89.2%
2026-10-16T06:41:09+00:00	72.9%	68.1%	47.9%	43.6%	89.2%
2026-10-16T07:26:19+00:00	72.9%	68.1%	47.9%	43.6%	89.2%
2026-10-16T08:11:30+00:00	76.6%	68.1%	47.9%	43.6%	93.1%
2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00	76.6%	68.1%	47.9%	43.6%	93.1%
2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00	76.6%	68.1%	47.9%	43.6%	93.1%
2026-10-16T10:27:00+00:00	76.6%	68.1%	47.9%	43.6%	93.1%
2026-10-16T11:12:27+00:00	76.6%	67.4%	58.2%	43.6%	93.1%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00	76.6%	67.4%	58.2%	43.6%	93.1%
2026-10-16T12:42:52+00:00	76.6%	67.4%	58.2%	43.6%	93.1%
2026-10-16T13:29:03+00:00	76.6%	67.4%	58.2%	43.6%	93.1%
2026-10-16T14:19:59+00:00	72.0%	67.3%	58.2%	57.1%	93.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	93%	85.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	72%	82.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	67%	81.5°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	58%	80.2°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	57%	80.3°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	80.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-16 02:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	78.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KLAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAX-20261019-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 12 · 11:35 UTC

Original listing: Los Angeles high ≥ 80°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗