KLAX / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Los Angeles, CAHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST66%Oct 16 · 14:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

72%

67%

58%

57%

Consensus

66%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 75.1¢Risks 75.10u

HRESNO 24.9¢Risks 24.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +24.90u · HRES −24.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	90.4%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	96.8%	—	—	—	—	91.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	84.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	90.7%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	91.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	86.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	92.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	93.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	38.4%	—	—	—	—	97.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	36.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	76.3%	—	—	—	—	94.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	90.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	92.5%	—	—	—	—	95.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	71.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	78.2%	—	—	—	—	94.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	85.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	42.8%	—	—	92.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	65.1%	—	89.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	61.8%	—	—	—	—	93.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	65.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	51.3%	—	53.2%	—	—	91.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	31.5%	—	48.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	5.4%	40.0%	—	—	89.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	46.6%	—	22.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	38.9%	94.0%	45.8%	19.4%	—	94.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	30.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	42.7%	84.4%	37.8%	44.2%	—	93.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	39.6%	—	28.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	30.3%	87.8%	42.4%	35.8%	—	93.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	33.4%	—	73.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	32.3%	73.9%	71.2%	51.6%	—	95.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	49.2%	—	63.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	51.7%	83.2%	40.1%	60.7%	—	97.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	48.3%	49.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	91.0%	43.0%	69.3%	—	95.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	42.9%	86.5%	47.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	46.3%	84.0%	42.7%	64.4%	—	93.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	38.8%	83.5%	42.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	89.8%	44.2%	32.1%	—	96.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	35.3%	86.0%	35.3%	—	—	94.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	37.8%	89.2%	46.9%	37.8%	—	96.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	88.9%	39.5%	—	—	97.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	44.5%	94.1%	36.1%	19.0%	0.0%	94.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	94.3%	38.9%	0.5%	—	96.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	64.8%	94.9%	46.5%	48.8%	83.2%	98.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	65.3%	94.8%	53.6%	50.0%	—	98.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	70.2%	97.7%	57.4%	46.3%	—	98.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	59.0%	98.6%	51.3%	43.6%	—	98.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	66.9%	96.5%	56.7%	47.3%	69.3%	99.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	72.4%	96.5%	51.4%	45.8%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	72.0%	97.9%	58.6%	47.1%	78.8%	99.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	98.3%	57.5%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	93%	85.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	72%	82.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	67%	81.5°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	58%	80.2°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	57%	80.3°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	80.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-16 02:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	78.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KLAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAX-20261019-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 12 · 11:35 UTC

Original listing: Los Angeles high ≥ 80°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗