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KLAX / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Los Angeles, CAHigh ≥ 81°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST50%Oct 12 · 10:50 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
67%
AIFS
63%
WN2
40%
HRES
35%
ICON
27%
Consensus
50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 46.9¢Risks 46.85u
VS
ICONNO 53.1¢Risks 53.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +53.15u · ICON −53.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 62.6% · 2026-10-12T07:49:07+00:00AIFS Single: 62.6% · 2026-10-12T08:34:34+00:00AIFS Single: 62.6% · 2026-10-12T09:19:40+00:00AIFS Single: 62.6% · 2026-10-12T10:05:02+00:00AIFS Single: 62.6% · 2026-10-12T10:50:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.6% · 2026-10-12T07:49:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.6% · 2026-10-12T08:34:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.6% · 2026-10-12T09:19:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.6% · 2026-10-12T10:05:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.6% · 2026-10-12T10:50:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 40.3% · 2026-10-12T07:49:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 40.3% · 2026-10-12T08:34:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 40.3% · 2026-10-12T09:19:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 40.3% · 2026-10-12T10:05:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 40.3% · 2026-10-12T10:50:14+00:00IFS HRES: 34.7% · 2026-10-12T07:49:07+00:00IFS HRES: 34.7% · 2026-10-12T08:34:34+00:00IFS HRES: 34.7% · 2026-10-12T09:19:40+00:00IFS HRES: 34.7% · 2026-10-12T10:05:02+00:00IFS HRES: 34.7% · 2026-10-12T10:50:14+00:00ICON: 27.1% · 2026-10-12T07:49:07+00:00ICON: 27.1% · 2026-10-12T08:34:34+00:00ICON: 27.1% · 2026-10-12T09:19:40+00:00ICON: 27.1% · 2026-10-12T10:05:02+00:00ICON: 27.1% · 2026-10-12T10:50:14+00:0010-12 07:4910-12 09:1910-12 10:50
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-12T10:50:14+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-12T07:49:07+00:0062.6%66.6%40.3%34.7%27.1%
2026-10-12T08:34:34+00:0062.6%66.6%40.3%34.7%27.1%
2026-10-12T09:19:40+00:0062.6%66.6%40.3%34.7%27.1%
2026-10-12T10:05:02+00:0062.6%66.6%40.3%34.7%27.1%
2026-10-12T10:50:14+00:0062.6%66.6%40.3%34.7%27.1%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble67%82.3°F4.2°F2026-10-11 00:00Pending
AIFS Single63%82.3°F5.6°F2026-10-12 00:00Pending
National Blend54%81.0°F5.5°F2026-10-12 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 240%79.2°F5.3°F2026-10-11 18:00Pending
IFS HRES35%78.0°F6.3°F2026-10-12 00:00Pending
ICON27%74.5°F9.9°F2026-10-12 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 81°F · KLAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAX-20261019-TMAX-GE81
Opened Oct 12 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Los Angeles high ≥ 81°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗