KLAX / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Los Angeles, CAHigh ≥ 81°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST50%Oct 12 · 10:50 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

67%

63%

40%

35%

27%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 46.9¢Risks 46.85u

ICONNO 53.1¢Risks 53.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +53.15u · ICON −53.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	88.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	95.7%	—	—	—	—	88.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	88.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	88.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	83.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	90.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	91.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	33.4%	—	—	—	—	96.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	31.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	71.9%	—	—	—	—	92.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	87.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	90.2%	—	—	—	—	93.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	66.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	73.6%	—	—	—	—	92.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	81.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	43.4%	—	36.9%	—	—	90.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	59.2%	—	86.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	55.6%	—	—	—	—	91.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	58.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	44.8%	—	46.8%	—	—	89.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	25.8%	—	41.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	34.8%	3.8%	33.6%	—	—	85.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	39.8%	—	17.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	32.3%	91.5%	38.9%	14.9%	—	92.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	34.6%	—	24.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	35.7%	79.5%	31.0%	37.1%	—	90.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	—	22.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	23.9%	83.5%	35.1%	28.9%	—	91.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	26.6%	—	66.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	25.5%	67.0%	64.1%	43.6%	—	92.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	55.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	43.4%	77.5%	32.2%	52.5%	—	95.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	39.8%	40.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	27.7%	86.9%	34.6%	61.3%	—	93.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	34.2%	81.0%	38.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	37.3%	77.7%	33.9%	55.5%	—	89.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	76.9%	33.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	32.1%	84.7%	34.8%	24.0%	—	93.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	26.5%	79.6%	26.5%	—	—	91.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	28.5%	83.7%	36.9%	28.5%	—	93.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	29.8%	83.1%	29.8%	—	—	95.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	34.1%	90.1%	26.4%	12.5%	0.0%	90.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	38.9%	90.3%	28.6%	0.2%	—	94.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	53.5%	91.0%	35.2%	37.4%	74.9%	97.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	53.6%	90.8%	41.6%	38.1%	—	96.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	95.4%	45.0%	34.2%	—	96.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	46.1%	97.0%	38.5%	31.4%	—	96.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	54.0%	93.0%	43.3%	34.3%	56.7%	98.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	59.7%	92.9%	37.7%	32.5%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	58.6%	95.3%	44.2%	33.1%	66.9%	98.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	95.9%	42.5%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	67%	82.3°F	4.2°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	63%	82.3°F	5.6°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	81.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	40%	79.2°F	5.3°F	2026-10-11 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	35%	78.0°F	6.3°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
ICON	27%	74.5°F	9.9°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 81°F · KLAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAX-20261019-TMAX-GE81
Opened Oct 12 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Los Angeles high ≥ 81°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗