KLAX / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Los Angeles, CAHigh ≥ 85°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST4%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

54%

40%

20%

14%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 31.6¢Risks 31.65u

HRESNO 68.3¢Risks 68.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +68.35u · HRES −68.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	2.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	73.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	88.2%	—	—	—	—	75.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	74.3%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	75.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	78.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	79.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	16.8%	—	—	—	—	89.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	15.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	81.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	72.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	76.6%	—	—	—	—	83.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	51.8%	—	—	—	—	79.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	62.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	21.9%	—	17.3%	—	—	75.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	69.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	31.3%	—	—	—	—	77.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	33.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	21.7%	—	23.1%	—	—	71.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	9.4%	—	18.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	14.3%	0.7%	13.5%	—	—	65.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	17.1%	—	5.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	12.2%	74.8%	16.2%	4.0%	—	77.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	—	8.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	13.6%	53.6%	10.9%	14.4%	—	72.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	6.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	7.0%	58.3%	12.5%	9.3%	—	71.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	36.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	7.2%	35.9%	33.0%	16.9%	—	73.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	25.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	15.7%	46.7%	9.7%	21.9%	—	81.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	14.2%	13.2%	13.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	7.0%	59.6%	10.1%	27.7%	—	73.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	9.6%	49.1%	11.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	10.6%	43.6%	9.0%	21.6%	—	62.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	7.0%	41.5%	8.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	51.9%	8.6%	4.6%	—	70.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	43.0%	5.1%	—	—	64.7%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	5.5%	47.9%	8.6%	5.5%	—	67.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	5.5%	45.8%	5.5%	—	—	72.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	6.6%	57.6%	4.2%	1.2%	0.0%	58.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	7.9%	56.7%	4.5%	0.0%	—	66.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	14.0%	57.0%	6.1%	6.8%	31.0%	76.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	54.8%	7.8%	6.6%	—	74.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	15.1%	66.9%	8.5%	4.9%	—	72.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	8.2%	72.0%	5.6%	3.7%	—	68.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	10.7%	55.4%	6.5%	4.0%	12.0%	76.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	12.4%	52.8%	4.3%	3.2%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	10.8%	58.6%	5.5%	2.9%	15.4%	76.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	59.0%	4.4%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	54%	84.9°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
ICON	40%	83.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	20%	80.7°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	14%	81.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	9%	79.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	80.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	<1%	77.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 85°F · KLAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAX-20261019-TMAX-GE85
Opened Oct 12 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Los Angeles runs hot-for-here: 85°F+ · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗