KLAX / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Los Angeles, CAHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST96%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

>99%

96%

93%

87%

Consensus

96%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 93.3¢Risks 46.67u

HRESNO 6.7¢Risks 3.33u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +3.33u · HRES −3.33u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T04:25:09+00:00	83.3%	95.9%	72.8%	62.9%	64.3%
2026-10-16T05:10:34+00:00	83.3%	95.9%	77.5%	62.9%	64.3%
2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00	83.3%	95.9%	77.5%	62.9%	64.3%
2026-10-16T06:41:09+00:00	83.3%	95.9%	77.5%	62.9%	64.3%
2026-10-16T07:26:19+00:00	83.3%	95.9%	77.5%	62.9%	64.3%
2026-10-16T08:11:30+00:00	85.2%	95.9%	77.5%	62.9%	95.8%
2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00	85.2%	95.9%	77.5%	62.9%	95.8%
2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00	85.2%	95.9%	77.5%	62.9%	95.8%
2026-10-16T10:27:00+00:00	85.2%	95.9%	77.5%	62.9%	95.8%
2026-10-16T11:12:27+00:00	85.2%	98.0%	79.0%	62.9%	95.8%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00	85.2%	98.0%	79.0%	62.9%	95.8%
2026-10-16T12:42:52+00:00	85.2%	98.0%	79.0%	62.9%	95.8%
2026-10-16T13:29:03+00:00	85.2%	98.0%	79.0%	62.9%	95.8%
2026-10-16T14:19:59+00:00	87.6%	97.9%	79.0%	57.9%	95.8%
2026-10-16T15:05:50+00:00	87.6%	98.1%	79.0%	57.9%	95.8%
2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00	87.6%	98.1%	79.0%	57.9%	95.8%
2026-10-16T16:36:15+00:00	87.6%	98.1%	79.0%	57.9%	95.8%
2026-10-16T17:21:32+00:00	87.6%	98.1%	79.8%	57.9%	95.8%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00	87.6%	98.1%	79.8%	57.9%	95.8%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00	87.6%	98.1%	79.8%	57.9%	95.8%
2026-10-16T19:37:17+00:00	95.1%	98.1%	79.8%	57.9%	97.1%
2026-10-16T20:22:43+00:00	95.1%	98.1%	79.8%	57.9%	97.1%
2026-10-16T21:07:49+00:00	95.1%	98.1%	79.8%	57.9%	97.1%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	95.1%	98.1%	79.8%	57.9%	97.1%
2026-10-16T22:38:11+00:00	95.1%	98.1%	79.8%	61.0%	97.1%
2026-10-16T23:23:40+00:00	95.1%	98.1%	89.7%	61.0%	97.1%
2026-10-17T00:09:45+00:00	95.1%	98.1%	89.7%	61.0%	97.1%
2026-10-17T00:55:01+00:00	95.1%	98.1%	89.7%	61.0%	97.1%
2026-10-17T01:40:14+00:00	91.6%	98.1%	89.7%	61.0%	97.1%
2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:00	91.6%	98.1%	89.7%	61.0%	97.1%
2026-10-17T03:10:31+00:00	91.6%	98.1%	89.7%	61.0%	97.1%
2026-10-17T03:55:43+00:00	91.6%	98.1%	89.7%	61.0%	97.1%
2026-10-17T04:42:39+00:00	91.6%	98.1%	89.7%	61.0%	97.1%
2026-10-17T05:28:30+00:00	91.6%	98.1%	87.6%	61.0%	97.1%
2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:00	91.6%	98.1%	87.6%	61.0%	97.1%
2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00	91.6%	98.1%	87.6%	61.0%	97.1%
2026-10-17T07:45:11+00:00	99.8%	98.1%	87.6%	77.7%	99.8%
2026-10-17T08:31:05+00:00	99.8%	98.1%	87.6%	77.7%	99.8%
2026-10-17T09:16:45+00:00	99.8%	98.1%	87.6%	77.7%	99.8%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00	99.8%	98.1%	87.6%	77.7%	99.8%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	99.8%	98.1%	87.6%	77.7%	99.8%
2026-10-17T11:32:17+00:00	99.8%	96.8%	97.3%	77.7%	99.8%
2026-10-17T12:17:30+00:00	99.8%	96.8%	97.3%	77.7%	99.8%
2026-10-17T13:02:38+00:00	99.8%	96.8%	97.3%	77.7%	99.8%
2026-10-17T13:47:57+00:00	99.4%	96.8%	97.3%	77.7%	99.8%
2026-10-17T14:39:20+00:00	99.4%	96.6%	97.3%	77.7%	99.8%
2026-10-17T15:25:20+00:00	99.4%	96.5%	97.3%	77.7%	99.8%
2026-10-17T16:10:35+00:00	99.4%	96.5%	97.3%	77.7%	99.8%
2026-10-17T16:55:43+00:00	99.4%	96.5%	97.3%	77.7%	99.8%
2026-10-17T17:40:52+00:00	99.4%	96.5%	92.7%	77.7%	99.8%
2026-10-17T18:25:59+00:00	99.4%	96.5%	92.7%	77.7%	99.8%
2026-10-17T19:11:06+00:00	99.4%	96.5%	92.7%	77.7%	99.8%
2026-10-17T19:56:20+00:00	99.8%	96.5%	92.7%	86.8%	99.8%
2026-10-17T20:41:33+00:00	99.8%	96.5%	92.7%	86.8%	99.8%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	99.8%	96.5%	92.7%	86.8%	99.8%
2026-10-17T22:11:57+00:00	99.8%	96.5%	92.7%	86.8%	99.8%
2026-10-17T22:57:07+00:00	99.8%	96.5%	92.7%	86.8%	99.8%
2026-10-17T23:42:15+00:00	99.8%	96.5%	93.1%	86.8%	99.8%
2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00	99.8%	96.5%	93.1%	86.8%	99.8%
2026-10-18T01:12:57+00:00	99.8%	96.5%	93.1%	86.8%	99.8%
2026-10-18T01:58:16+00:00	99.9%	96.5%	93.1%	86.8%	99.8%
2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00	99.9%	96.5%	93.1%	86.8%	99.8%
2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00	99.9%	96.5%	93.1%	86.8%	99.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	>99%	83.6°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
ICON	>99%	81.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	96%	78.9°F	4.6°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	93%	75.5°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	87%	75.5°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	71.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	71.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KLAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAX-20261020-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 16 · 04:25 UTC

Original listing: Los Angeles high ≥ 71°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗