KLAX / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Los Angeles, CAHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST96%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

>99%

96%

93%

87%

Consensus

96%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 93.3¢Risks 46.67u

HRESNO 6.7¢Risks 3.33u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +3.33u · HRES −3.33u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	90.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	99.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	99.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	90.4%	—	—	—	—	98.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	98.3%	—	—	—	—	99.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	95.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	—	—	—	99.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	91.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	99.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	88.2%	—	—	—	—	99.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	95.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	98.8%	—	—	—	—	99.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	89.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	70.5%	—	—	—	—	99.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	52.8%	—	—	—	—	98.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	66.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	61.6%	—	—	—	—	98.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	71.5%	—	92.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	65.9%	—	—	—	—	95.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	76.6%	—	63.0%	—	—	89.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	77.9%	—	56.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	61.6%	—	41.6%	—	—	91.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	46.0%	—	47.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	53.4%	9.9%	74.6%	—	—	89.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	57.5%	—	52.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	50.7%	92.8%	41.6%	40.3%	—	88.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	47.1%	—	95.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	40.6%	39.9%	92.9%	42.7%	—	94.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	50.7%	—	81.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	55.3%	73.0%	46.9%	44.7%	—	99.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	53.9%	—	42.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	45.2%	46.0%	38.2%	73.9%	—	97.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	44.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	54.2%	45.8%	46.7%	64.7%	—	93.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	55.1%	44.9%	38.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	55.2%	93.0%	66.2%	80.4%	—	93.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	60.7%	79.8%	64.9%	—	—	96.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	79.7%	95.9%	60.9%	63.6%	—	95.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	69.9%	99.3%	54.7%	—	—	99.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	98.2%	99.5%	64.3%	62.4%	—	99.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	95.6%	99.7%	70.1%	—	—	99.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	98.4%	99.7%	74.9%	88.7%	1.2%	99.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	99.3%	99.9%	83.7%	—	—	100.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	99.4%	99.9%	95.0%	93.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	99.3%	99.7%	94.0%	42.2%	—	100.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	99.0%	99.7%	97.8%	90.0%	0.1%	100.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	99.6%	100.0%	97.3%	89.2%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	99.6%	99.9%	99.1%	91.5%	99.2%	100.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	100.0%	99.2%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	>99%	83.6°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
ICON	>99%	81.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	96%	78.9°F	4.6°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	93%	75.5°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	87%	75.5°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	71.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	71.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KLAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAX-20261020-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 16 · 04:25 UTC

Original listing: Los Angeles high ≥ 71°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗