KLAX / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Los Angeles, CAHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST76%Oct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

88%

69%

63%

44%

Consensus

76%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 69.6¢Risks 69.60u

HRESNO 30.4¢Risks 30.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +30.40u · HRES −30.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T02:14:22+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T08:04:22+00:00	73.9%	89.3%	64.6%	77.1%	34.0%
2026-10-13T08:49:42+00:00	73.9%	89.3%	64.6%	77.1%	34.0%
2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00	73.9%	89.3%	64.6%	77.1%	34.0%
2026-10-13T10:20:00+00:00	73.9%	89.3%	64.6%	77.1%	34.0%
2026-10-13T11:05:28+00:00	73.9%	89.3%	64.6%	77.1%	34.0%
2026-10-13T11:50:43+00:00	73.9%	95.7%	72.0%	77.1%	34.0%
2026-10-13T12:35:51+00:00	73.9%	95.7%	72.0%	77.1%	34.0%
2026-10-13T13:20:57+00:00	73.9%	95.7%	72.0%	77.1%	34.0%
2026-10-13T14:06:06+00:00	78.3%	95.7%	72.0%	77.1%	34.0%
2026-10-13T14:56:06+00:00	78.3%	95.7%	72.0%	77.1%	34.0%
2026-10-13T15:41:57+00:00	78.3%	95.5%	72.0%	77.1%	34.0%
2026-10-13T16:27:06+00:00	78.3%	95.5%	72.0%	77.1%	34.0%
2026-10-13T17:12:14+00:00	78.3%	95.5%	69.2%	77.1%	34.0%
2026-10-13T17:57:20+00:00	78.3%	95.5%	69.2%	77.1%	34.0%
2026-10-13T18:42:25+00:00	78.3%	95.5%	69.2%	77.1%	34.0%
2026-10-13T19:27:31+00:00	78.3%	95.5%	69.2%	77.1%	34.0%
2026-10-13T20:12:39+00:00	72.7%	95.5%	69.2%	77.1%	88.3%
2026-10-13T20:57:46+00:00	72.7%	95.5%	69.2%	77.1%	88.3%
2026-10-13T21:43:20+00:00	72.7%	95.5%	69.2%	77.1%	88.3%
2026-10-13T22:28:27+00:00	72.7%	95.5%	69.2%	77.1%	88.3%
2026-10-13T23:13:40+00:00	72.7%	95.5%	63.4%	43.7%	88.3%
2026-10-13T23:58:48+00:00	72.7%	95.5%	63.4%	43.7%	88.3%
2026-10-14T00:43:56+00:00	72.7%	95.5%	63.4%	43.7%	88.3%
2026-10-14T01:29:15+00:00	69.1%	95.5%	63.4%	43.7%	88.3%
2026-10-14T02:14:22+00:00	69.1%	95.5%	63.4%	43.7%	88.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	96%	79.3°F	4.6°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
ICON	88%	83.3°F	9.9°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	69%	74.3°F	5.6°F	2026-10-13 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	63%	73.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	72.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-13 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	44%	70.5°F	6.3°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KLAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAX-20261020-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 13 · 08:04 UTC

Original listing: Los Angeles high ≥ 72°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗