KLAX / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Los Angeles, CAHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST76%Oct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

88%

69%

63%

44%

Consensus

76%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 69.6¢Risks 69.60u

HRESNO 30.4¢Risks 30.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +30.40u · HRES −30.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	98.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	99.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	—	—	—	98.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	97.7%	—	—	—	—	99.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	93.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—	99.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	89.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	99.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	—	—	—	99.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	93.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	98.3%	—	—	—	—	99.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	86.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	99.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	83.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	47.2%	—	—	—	—	97.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	61.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	55.9%	—	—	—	—	98.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	66.2%	—	90.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	60.2%	—	—	—	—	94.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	76.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	71.5%	—	56.9%	—	—	86.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	72.9%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	55.2%	—	35.4%	—	—	88.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	40.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	46.6%	7.2%	68.8%	—	—	86.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	50.7%	—	45.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	43.7%	90.1%	34.9%	33.6%	—	84.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	40.1%	—	93.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	33.7%	33.0%	90.0%	35.7%	—	92.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	43.3%	—	76.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	47.7%	66.3%	39.4%	37.2%	—	98.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	46.1%	—	34.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	37.5%	38.2%	30.9%	67.0%	—	95.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	40.3%	—	36.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	37.7%	38.5%	56.6%	—	90.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	46.6%	36.6%	30.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	46.5%	89.5%	57.8%	73.8%	—	89.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	51.8%	72.9%	56.3%	—	—	94.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	72.6%	93.4%	51.8%	54.6%	—	93.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	61.2%	98.6%	45.3%	—	—	98.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	96.8%	99.0%	54.9%	52.9%	—	99.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	92.7%	99.3%	60.9%	—	—	99.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	97.0%	99.3%	66.0%	83.0%	0.6%	99.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	98.5%	99.7%	76.3%	—	—	99.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	98.8%	99.9%	91.5%	88.6%	—	99.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	98.5%	99.2%	89.8%	31.5%	—	100.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	98.0%	99.2%	95.8%	84.0%	0.0%	100.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	99.2%	100.0%	94.8%	82.5%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	99.1%	99.8%	97.9%	85.6%	98.2%	100.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	99.9%	98.2%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	96%	79.3°F	4.6°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
ICON	88%	83.3°F	9.9°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	69%	74.3°F	5.6°F	2026-10-13 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	63%	73.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	72.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-13 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	44%	70.5°F	6.3°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KLAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAX-20261020-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 13 · 08:04 UTC

Original listing: Los Angeles high ≥ 72°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗