KLAX / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Los Angeles, CAHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST98%Oct 19 · 10:35 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

98%

97%

96%

94%

Consensus

98%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 97.0¢Risks 24.25u

EPSNO 3.0¢Risks 0.75u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +0.75u · EPS −0.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T10:35:27+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T03:00:14+00:00	62.6%	93.0%	55.6%	37.6%	86.2%
2026-10-14T03:45:41+00:00	62.6%	93.0%	55.6%	37.6%	86.2%
2026-10-14T04:30:47+00:00	62.6%	93.0%	55.6%	37.6%	86.2%
2026-10-14T05:15:56+00:00	62.6%	93.0%	55.6%	37.6%	86.2%
2026-10-14T06:01:02+00:00	62.6%	93.0%	55.6%	37.6%	86.2%
2026-10-14T06:46:21+00:00	62.6%	93.0%	55.6%	37.6%	86.2%
2026-10-14T07:31:30+00:00	56.7%	93.0%	55.6%	37.6%	51.1%
2026-10-14T08:16:40+00:00	56.7%	93.0%	55.6%	37.6%	51.1%
2026-10-14T09:01:49+00:00	56.7%	93.0%	55.6%	37.6%	51.1%
2026-10-14T09:46:56+00:00	56.7%	93.0%	55.6%	37.6%	51.1%
2026-10-14T10:34:55+00:00	56.7%	93.0%	55.6%	27.1%	51.1%
2026-10-14T11:21:05+00:00	56.7%	87.7%	56.9%	27.1%	51.1%
2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00	56.7%	87.7%	56.9%	27.1%	51.1%
2026-10-14T12:51:24+00:00	56.7%	87.7%	56.9%	27.1%	51.1%
2026-10-14T13:36:32+00:00	66.8%	87.7%	56.9%	27.1%	51.1%
2026-10-14T14:26:53+00:00	67.2%	87.6%	56.8%	27.2%	51.1%
2026-10-14T15:12:47+00:00	67.2%	88.1%	56.8%	27.2%	51.1%
2026-10-14T15:57:59+00:00	67.2%	88.1%	56.8%	27.2%	51.1%
2026-10-14T16:43:07+00:00	67.2%	88.1%	56.8%	27.2%	51.1%
2026-10-14T17:28:17+00:00	67.2%	88.1%	63.4%	27.2%	51.1%
2026-10-14T18:13:22+00:00	67.2%	88.1%	63.4%	27.2%	51.1%
2026-10-14T18:58:30+00:00	67.2%	88.1%	63.4%	27.2%	51.1%
2026-10-14T19:43:41+00:00	71.1%	88.1%	63.4%	87.9%	75.2%
2026-10-14T20:28:53+00:00	71.1%	88.1%	63.4%	87.9%	75.2%
2026-10-14T21:13:59+00:00	71.1%	88.1%	63.4%	87.9%	75.2%
2026-10-14T21:59:06+00:00	71.1%	88.1%	63.4%	87.9%	75.2%
2026-10-14T22:44:12+00:00	71.1%	88.1%	63.4%	87.9%	75.2%
2026-10-14T23:29:35+00:00	71.1%	88.1%	67.4%	87.9%	75.2%
2026-10-15T00:15:28+00:00	71.1%	88.1%	67.4%	87.9%	75.2%
2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00	71.1%	88.1%	67.4%	87.9%	75.2%
2026-10-15T01:46:23+00:00	69.8%	88.1%	67.4%	87.9%	75.2%
2026-10-15T02:31:32+00:00	69.8%	88.1%	67.4%	87.9%	75.2%
2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00	69.8%	88.1%	67.4%	87.9%	75.2%
2026-10-15T04:02:41+00:00	69.8%	88.1%	67.4%	87.9%	75.2%
2026-10-15T04:48:12+00:00	69.8%	88.1%	67.4%	87.9%	75.2%
2026-10-15T05:33:24+00:00	69.8%	88.1%	63.4%	87.9%	75.2%
2026-10-15T06:18:31+00:00	69.8%	88.1%	63.4%	87.9%	75.2%
2026-10-15T07:03:40+00:00	69.8%	88.1%	63.4%	87.9%	75.2%
2026-10-15T07:50:37+00:00	62.6%	88.1%	63.4%	41.1%	50.7%
2026-10-15T08:35:53+00:00	62.6%	88.1%	63.4%	41.1%	50.7%
2026-10-15T09:21:48+00:00	62.6%	88.1%	63.4%	41.1%	50.7%
2026-10-15T10:07:44+00:00	62.6%	88.1%	63.4%	41.1%	50.7%
2026-10-15T10:53:49+00:00	62.6%	88.1%	63.4%	41.1%	50.7%
2026-10-15T11:39:42+00:00	62.6%	88.1%	66.0%	41.1%	50.7%
2026-10-15T12:24:58+00:00	62.6%	90.8%	66.0%	41.1%	50.7%
2026-10-15T13:10:40+00:00	62.6%	90.8%	66.0%	41.1%	50.7%
2026-10-15T13:55:56+00:00	66.4%	90.8%	66.0%	41.1%	50.7%
2026-10-15T14:48:28+00:00	66.4%	90.8%	66.0%	41.1%	51.3%
2026-10-15T15:34:44+00:00	66.4%	91.0%	66.0%	41.1%	51.3%
2026-10-15T16:20:17+00:00	66.4%	91.0%	66.0%	41.1%	51.3%
2026-10-15T17:05:26+00:00	66.4%	91.0%	65.1%	41.1%	51.3%
2026-10-15T17:50:49+00:00	66.4%	91.0%	65.1%	41.1%	51.3%
2026-10-15T18:36:03+00:00	66.4%	91.0%	65.1%	41.1%	51.3%
2026-10-15T19:21:11+00:00	66.4%	91.0%	65.1%	41.1%	51.3%
2026-10-15T20:06:23+00:00	70.7%	91.0%	65.1%	49.3%	51.3%
2026-10-15T20:51:37+00:00	70.7%	91.0%	65.1%	49.3%	51.3%
2026-10-15T21:36:46+00:00	70.7%	91.0%	65.1%	49.3%	51.3%
2026-10-15T22:21:55+00:00	70.7%	91.0%	65.1%	49.3%	51.3%
2026-10-15T23:07:06+00:00	70.7%	91.0%	54.8%	49.3%	51.3%
2026-10-15T23:52:19+00:00	70.7%	91.0%	54.8%	49.3%	51.3%
2026-10-16T00:37:28+00:00	70.7%	91.0%	54.8%	49.3%	51.3%
2026-10-16T01:22:54+00:00	71.4%	91.0%	54.8%	49.3%	51.3%
2026-10-16T02:08:22+00:00	71.4%	91.0%	54.8%	49.3%	51.3%
2026-10-16T02:53:36+00:00	71.4%	91.0%	54.8%	49.3%	51.3%
2026-10-16T03:38:46+00:00	71.4%	91.0%	54.8%	49.3%	51.3%
2026-10-19T04:31:34+00:00	99.6%	94.4%	96.2%	85.3%	97.5%
2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00	99.6%	94.4%	96.9%	85.3%	97.5%
2026-10-19T06:02:16+00:00	99.6%	94.4%	96.9%	85.3%	97.5%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	99.6%	94.4%	96.9%	85.3%	97.5%
2026-10-19T07:33:53+00:00	99.6%	94.4%	96.9%	96.5%	97.7%
2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00	99.6%	94.4%	96.9%	96.5%	97.7%
2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00	99.6%	94.4%	96.9%	96.5%	97.7%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00	99.6%	94.4%	96.9%	96.5%	97.7%
2026-10-19T10:35:27+00:00	99.6%	94.4%	96.9%	96.5%	97.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	>99%	82.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	98%	79.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	97%	78.3°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	96%	79.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	94%	79.4°F	4.3°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	94%	76.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	73.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KLAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAX-20261020-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 14 · 03:00 UTC

Original listing: Los Angeles high ≥ 73°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗