KLAX / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Los Angeles, CAHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST98%Oct 19 · 10:35 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

98%

97%

96%

94%

Consensus

98%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 97.0¢Risks 24.25u

EPSNO 3.0¢Risks 0.75u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +0.75u · EPS −0.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	84.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	98.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	98.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	—	97.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	96.8%	—	—	—	—	98.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	92.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	99.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	99.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	—	—	—	98.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	91.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	97.6%	—	—	—	—	99.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	83.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	60.3%	—	—	—	—	98.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	97.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	97.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	60.6%	—	87.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	92.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	71.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	65.9%	—	50.6%	—	—	82.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	43.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	48.7%	—	29.5%	—	—	85.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	33.3%	—	34.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	40.0%	5.2%	62.6%	—	—	82.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	43.8%	—	39.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	86.7%	28.6%	27.5%	—	79.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	33.3%	—	91.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	27.2%	26.6%	86.5%	29.1%	—	89.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	36.1%	—	70.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	40.2%	59.1%	32.3%	30.3%	—	98.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	27.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	30.9%	24.2%	59.5%	—	93.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	—	29.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	37.7%	30.0%	30.8%	48.3%	—	86.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	38.2%	28.8%	23.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	37.9%	84.9%	49.1%	66.2%	—	85.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	42.9%	64.9%	47.3%	—	—	90.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	64.4%	89.8%	42.7%	45.4%	—	89.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	51.9%	97.6%	36.1%	—	—	96.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	94.6%	98.2%	45.1%	43.2%	—	98.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	88.6%	98.6%	51.0%	—	—	99.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	94.8%	98.7%	56.1%	75.7%	0.3%	99.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	97.2%	99.4%	67.4%	—	—	99.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	97.6%	99.7%	86.3%	82.4%	—	99.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	97.1%	98.4%	83.9%	22.3%	—	99.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	96.0%	98.4%	92.4%	75.8%	0.0%	100.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	98.1%	99.9%	90.8%	73.7%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	98.0%	99.6%	95.7%	77.3%	96.3%	100.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	99.7%	96.3%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	>99%	82.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	98%	79.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	97%	78.3°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	96%	79.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	94%	79.4°F	4.3°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	94%	76.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	73.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KLAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAX-20261020-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 14 · 03:00 UTC

Original listing: Los Angeles high ≥ 73°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗