KLAX / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Los Angeles, CAHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST86%Oct 19 · 11:21 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

96%

88%

75%

70%

Consensus

86%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 83.9¢Risks 83.85u

ICONNO 16.1¢Risks 16.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +16.15u · ICON −16.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T11:21:20+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T10:34:55+00:00	63.2%	65.1%	58.1%	23.4%	29.3%
2026-10-14T11:21:05+00:00	63.2%	62.0%	50.8%	23.4%	29.3%
2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00	63.2%	62.0%	50.8%	23.4%	29.3%
2026-10-14T12:51:24+00:00	63.2%	62.0%	50.8%	23.4%	29.3%
2026-10-14T13:36:32+00:00	40.2%	62.0%	50.8%	23.4%	29.3%
2026-10-14T14:26:53+00:00	40.2%	62.0%	50.8%	23.4%	29.7%
2026-10-14T15:12:47+00:00	40.2%	62.9%	50.8%	23.4%	29.7%
2026-10-14T15:57:59+00:00	40.2%	62.9%	50.8%	23.4%	29.7%
2026-10-14T16:43:07+00:00	40.2%	62.9%	50.8%	23.4%	29.7%
2026-10-14T17:28:17+00:00	40.2%	62.9%	51.6%	23.4%	29.7%
2026-10-14T18:13:22+00:00	40.2%	62.9%	51.6%	23.4%	29.7%
2026-10-14T18:58:30+00:00	40.2%	62.9%	51.6%	23.4%	29.7%
2026-10-14T19:43:41+00:00	55.7%	62.9%	51.6%	93.1%	60.7%
2026-10-14T20:28:53+00:00	55.7%	62.9%	51.6%	93.1%	60.7%
2026-10-14T21:13:59+00:00	55.7%	62.9%	51.6%	93.1%	60.7%
2026-10-14T21:59:06+00:00	55.7%	62.9%	51.6%	93.1%	60.7%
2026-10-14T22:44:12+00:00	55.7%	62.9%	51.6%	93.1%	60.7%
2026-10-14T23:29:35+00:00	55.7%	62.9%	57.9%	93.1%	60.7%
2026-10-15T00:15:28+00:00	55.7%	62.9%	57.9%	93.1%	60.7%
2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00	55.7%	62.9%	57.9%	93.1%	60.7%
2026-10-15T01:46:23+00:00	48.6%	62.9%	57.9%	93.1%	60.7%
2026-10-15T02:31:32+00:00	48.6%	62.9%	57.9%	93.1%	60.7%
2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00	48.6%	62.9%	57.9%	93.1%	60.7%
2026-10-15T04:02:41+00:00	48.6%	62.9%	57.9%	93.1%	60.7%
2026-10-15T04:48:12+00:00	48.6%	62.9%	57.9%	93.1%	60.7%
2026-10-15T05:33:24+00:00	48.6%	62.9%	49.2%	93.1%	60.7%
2026-10-15T06:18:31+00:00	48.6%	62.9%	49.2%	93.1%	60.7%
2026-10-15T07:03:40+00:00	48.6%	62.9%	49.2%	93.1%	60.7%
2026-10-15T07:50:37+00:00	33.5%	62.9%	49.2%	25.7%	47.2%
2026-10-15T08:35:53+00:00	33.5%	62.9%	49.2%	25.7%	47.2%
2026-10-15T09:21:48+00:00	33.5%	62.9%	49.2%	25.7%	47.2%
2026-10-15T10:07:44+00:00	33.5%	62.9%	49.2%	25.7%	47.2%
2026-10-15T10:53:49+00:00	33.5%	62.9%	49.2%	25.7%	47.2%
2026-10-15T11:39:42+00:00	33.5%	62.9%	53.4%	25.7%	47.2%
2026-10-15T12:24:58+00:00	33.5%	65.8%	53.4%	25.7%	47.2%
2026-10-15T13:10:40+00:00	33.5%	65.8%	53.4%	25.7%	47.2%
2026-10-15T13:55:56+00:00	43.4%	65.8%	53.4%	25.7%	47.2%
2026-10-15T14:48:28+00:00	43.4%	65.8%	53.4%	25.7%	47.2%
2026-10-15T15:34:44+00:00	43.4%	67.2%	53.4%	25.7%	47.2%
2026-10-15T16:20:17+00:00	43.4%	67.2%	53.4%	25.7%	47.2%
2026-10-15T17:05:26+00:00	43.4%	67.2%	60.1%	25.7%	47.2%
2026-10-15T17:50:49+00:00	43.4%	67.2%	60.1%	25.7%	47.2%
2026-10-15T18:36:03+00:00	43.4%	67.2%	60.1%	25.7%	47.2%
2026-10-15T19:21:11+00:00	43.4%	67.2%	60.1%	25.7%	47.2%
2026-10-15T20:06:23+00:00	39.0%	67.2%	60.1%	43.4%	56.7%
2026-10-15T20:51:37+00:00	39.0%	67.2%	60.1%	43.4%	56.7%
2026-10-15T21:36:46+00:00	39.0%	67.2%	60.1%	43.4%	56.7%
2026-10-15T22:21:55+00:00	39.0%	67.2%	60.1%	43.4%	56.7%
2026-10-15T23:07:06+00:00	39.0%	67.2%	44.0%	43.4%	56.7%
2026-10-15T23:52:19+00:00	39.0%	67.2%	44.0%	43.4%	56.7%
2026-10-16T00:37:28+00:00	39.0%	67.2%	44.0%	43.4%	56.7%
2026-10-16T01:22:54+00:00	46.3%	67.2%	44.0%	43.4%	56.7%
2026-10-16T02:08:22+00:00	46.3%	67.2%	44.0%	43.4%	56.7%
2026-10-16T02:53:36+00:00	46.3%	67.2%	44.0%	43.4%	56.7%
2026-10-16T03:38:46+00:00	46.3%	67.2%	44.0%	43.4%	56.7%
2026-10-19T04:31:34+00:00	98.0%	87.5%	79.7%	52.7%	56.0%
2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00	98.0%	87.5%	92.7%	52.7%	56.0%
2026-10-19T06:02:16+00:00	98.0%	87.5%	92.7%	52.7%	56.0%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	98.0%	87.5%	92.7%	52.7%	56.0%
2026-10-19T07:33:53+00:00	97.4%	87.5%	92.7%	75.3%	70.3%
2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00	97.4%	87.5%	92.7%	75.3%	70.3%
2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00	97.4%	87.5%	92.7%	75.3%	70.3%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00	97.4%	87.5%	92.7%	75.3%	70.3%
2026-10-19T10:35:27+00:00	97.4%	87.5%	92.7%	75.3%	70.3%
2026-10-19T11:21:20+00:00	97.4%	95.8%	88.4%	75.3%	70.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	97%	78.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	96%	78.5°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	88%	74.2°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	75%	73.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	70%	72.4°F	3.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	71.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	71.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KLAX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLAX-20261021-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 14 · 10:34 UTC

Original listing: Los Angeles high ≥ 71°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗